海外札记20260224：K型经济走向再平衡

Economic Overview - The Q4 2025 US GDP growth rate was +1.4%, significantly below the market expectation of 2.8% and the Q3 growth of 4.4%[4] - Government spending was a major drag, with Q4 government consumption and investment down by 5.1%, contributing a negative 0.9% to GDP growth[4] - Personal consumption expenditure growth was recorded at 2.4%, with service consumption at +3.4% and goods consumption at -0.1%[4] Inflation Insights - The January CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.4%, lower than expected, while core CPI was at 2.5%[4] - Energy prices were the largest drag on inflation, decreasing by 1.5% month-on-month[4] - Core goods inflation dropped to 1.1% from 1.4% in December, with used car prices falling by 1.8%[4] Policy Implications - The US Supreme Court's rejection of Trump's tariff-related measures could lead to a potential refund of tariffs, estimated at up to $175 billion, which may increase the US deficit rate by 0.5-0.6 percentage points[6] - The average effective tariff rate in the US was 9.8% as of December 2025, with China facing the highest rate at 33.4%[6] Market Trends - Since the beginning of 2026, asset prices have shown a trend of old economy sectors catching up with new economy sectors, with energy up by approximately 22.7% and technology down by 4.6%[8] - Non-US markets have also been catching up, with Japan up by 12%, Korea by 38%, and emerging markets by 12%[8] Risk Factors - There is uncertainty regarding the economic fundamentals, particularly if employment and consumption deteriorate, which could lead to a hard landing for the US economy[9] - The risk of worsening US fiscal deficits could pressure bond supply and interest rates, negatively impacting global risk assets[9]