特朗普新关税政策出台，或推高美债期限溢价并令财政可持续性承压

Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that parts of Trump's tariff policy exceeded legal authority, leading to the immediate invalidation of key measures like "reciprocal tariffs" and "fentanyl tariffs" [3] - Following the ruling, the Trump administration quickly implemented a temporary 10% tariff on all imported goods, later increasing it to 15% [4] - The new tariff policy aims to shift from broad taxation to a focus on critical supply chain nodes, restructuring the U.S. industrial system [10] Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. current account deficit for the first three quarters of 2025 was recorded at $915.44 billion, a 4.8% increase year-on-year, with an estimated annual deficit of $1.2 trillion, approximately 4% of GDP [8] - If the courts require the U.S. Treasury to refund approximately $175 billion in tariffs, this could worsen fiscal conditions, necessitating increased national debt issuance [12] - The long-term and structured nature of the new tariff policy may elevate the term premium on U.S. Treasury bonds and raise concerns about fiscal sustainability [12]