【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡运行-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The plastics market is expected to oscillate. The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival. Due to the recent commissioning of new plastic production capacity, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the L - PP spread should continue to be narrowed as the concentrated demand for plastic mulch has not yet started [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On February 25, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 93%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 875,000 tons, 65,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and basically the same as in previous years. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. In terms of cost, the market is worried about the situation in Iran. The data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 9.014 million barrels, and refined oil inventories declined across the board. Overseas crude oil prices rose during the Spring Festival. In terms of supply, BASF (Guangdong) with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year of FDPE and Yulong Petrochemical with 300,000 tons/year of LDPE/EVA were put into operation in January 2026. The plastics operating rate has increased slightly recently [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,766 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,846 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.13%. The position increased by 25,621 lots to 507,855 lots [2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6,620 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,230 - 8,960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,800 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 25, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 93%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 13, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 13.93 percentage points to 19.8% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 875,000 tons, 65,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and basically the same as in previous years. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $71/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $705/ton on a week - on - week basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $685/ton on a week - on - week basis [4].