【冠通期货研究报告】铁矿日报：宏观向好预期仍存，需求表现一般-20260225

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market has inventory accumulation and limited recovery in back - end demand. With the upcoming Two Sessions, the positive macro - expectations and the BACK structure of futures under positive basis limit the further downward space. In the short term, there may be a certain stop - fall and rebound [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded strongly during the day, closing at 752.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.62% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 277,000 lots, the open interest was 528,000 lots, with an increase of nearly 10,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.749 billion yuan. After falling to the predicted support level around 730, it showed certain resistance to decline and is expected to have a strong rebound in the short term [1]. - The spot prices of mainstream port varieties were stable. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 747 yuan (unchanged), the Super Special powder was 641 yuan (unchanged), and the swap main contract was 98.55 (+1.9) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to rebound strongly, while the spot price changed little and had limited follow - up strength [1]. - The converted price of PB powder at Qingdao Port to the futures price was 782 yuan/ton, with a basis of 29.5 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 11.5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and Australian shipments recovered. The arrivals continued to weaken this period, affected by weather, but are expected to pick up later. On the demand side, the hot metal output increased month - on - month, the steel mill profitability weakened, the rigid demand increased marginally, and the post - holiday demand support strength should be noted [2]. - In terms of inventory, the iron ore port inventory stopped increasing. The decline in arrivals and steel mill restocking alleviated the port inventory accumulation pressure temporarily, but the overall inventory pressure was still accumulating. The futures price was under pressure. With the upcoming Two Sessions after the Spring Festival, the market sentiment change should be noted [2]. Macroeconomic Analysis - Domestically, during the Spring Festival, travel, consumption, and key economic data in January showed differences. The social financing in January started steadily, with strong government - sector financing highlighting the policy front - loading tendency. Private - sector financing met expectations. Residential medium - and long - term loans were weak, but short - term consumer loans were strong. Corporate loans seemed weak but were actually stable, mainly affected by bond financing crowding - out, PSL investment, and policy transmission lag. The Spring Festival date shift also affected the social financing reading, and it is necessary to comprehensively observe the data from January to February [4]. - Overseas, the US economy showed a trend of overall slowdown in expansion and structural differentiation in multiple fields. In the fourth quarter, the US GDP growth rate slowed down significantly, with personal consumption being the main drag, and inflation stickiness still existed. The overall pattern was weak domestic demand, cooling growth, and significantly different recovery rhythms among various sectors [4].