【冠通期货研究报告】PVC日报：震荡运行-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is currently in a situation of weak reality and strong expectations, with expected volatile operation. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream industries after the Spring Festival [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. Before the Spring Festival, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, continuing a slight increase and remaining at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. During the Spring Festival, most downstream PVC industries shut down. In terms of exports, after the price increase before the Spring Festival, domestic export orders decreased month-on-month, but previous rush exports reduced the sales pressure on enterprises. The FOB price of Formosa Plastics' PVC exports for March shipments increased by $40/ton compared to February. Social inventories increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and remain high, with significant inventory pressure. In 2025 from January to December, the real estate market was still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased month-on-month, and sales were sluggish during the Spring Festival. The real estate market needs more time to improve. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor-alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises are decreasing, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. February is the traditional off-season for domestic PVC demand, and spot transactions are light after the Spring Festival, with social inventories continuing to increase. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment stated that it will focus on key aspects such as research and development of mercury-free catalysts to accelerate the mercury-free transformation of the PVC industry. Coupled with the expected continuation of rush exports after the festival, the market still has expectations for policies and maintenance after the Spring Festival [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,932 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,984 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,963 yuan/ton, near the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.65%. The position increased by 55,463 lots to 1,129,874 lots [2] Basis - On February 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China region remained stable at 4,770 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,963 yuan/ton. The current basis was -193 yuan/ton, weakening by 15 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by installations such as Shaanxi Jintai and Henan Yuhang, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.83 percentage points to 80.09%, continuing a slight increase and remaining at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons were all put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with an annual capacity of 300,000 tons started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. From January to December, the commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; among them, the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. From January to December, the new construction area of housing was 587.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; among them, the new construction area of residential housing was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. From January to December, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. From January to December, the completion area of housing was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%; among them, the completion area of residential housing was 428.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. Overall, the real estate market needs more time to improve. As of the week of February 22, the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 92.37% month-on-month, and sales were sluggish during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies after the festival can boost commercial housing sales [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of February 20, the PVC social inventory increased by 7.16% month-on-month to 1.3434 million tons, a 55.31% increase compared to the same period last year. Social inventories increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and remain high (Longzhong increased the social storage capacity in East and South China from 21 to 41) [6]