【冠通期货研究报告】螺纹日报：减仓反弹-20260225

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - None provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After a sharp decline in volume yesterday, today's 05 rebar contract rebounded with significant volume reduction. The upper pressure is at the convergence of the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. In the medium term, it's still in a weak state. The fundamentals are currently dominated by weak reality, but there are certain expectations of policy easing. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, some steel mills in Tangshan have received independent emission - reduction notices, leading to a collective rebound in the black series, but the sustainability needs to be observed. It is recommended to be cautious. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday production, demand recovery, and inventory depletion [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Wednesday, the rebar main contract reduced its position by 45,800 lots. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, reaching 1,150,036 lots. In terms of the daily moving average, it short - term broke through the 5 - day moving average, but there was still pressure from the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,024 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,084 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,076 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton or 1.72% [1]. - Spot Price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 134 yuan/ton to the spot price, and the basis remained large [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Situation: - Supply: Before the festival, the weekly output of rebar declined from a high level. In the week of February 13, 2026, the rebar output was 1.6916 million tons, a decrease of 225,200 tons from the previous week, mainly due to the concentrated maintenance of electric - arc furnace steel mills. Long - process steel mills still maintained a relatively high operating rate, but the overall supply pressure had eased compared to the peak in January [3]. - Demand: The terminal demand shrank significantly seasonally. In early February, the average daily trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders dropped to about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of more than 20%. The apparent consumption declined for three consecutive weeks, dropping to about 1.476 million tons in the week of February 13, the lowest level in recent lunar calendar periods. The new construction in the real estate sector and the arrival of infrastructure funds were still weak, and the pre - holiday market was "priced but without transactions" [3]. - Inventory: The inventory accumulation accelerated, with significant pressure. As of February 13, 2026, the social inventory of rebar reached 4.2323 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,100 tons; the steel mill inventory increased by 99,400 tons to 1.6359 million tons; the total inventory reached 5.8682 million tons, at a high level for the same period in recent years. Compared with the same period in history, although the inventory accumulation speed was slower than the average from 2022 - 2024, the absolute level was still high, and the inventory depletion pressure was significant, which became the core factor suppressing prices [3]. - Cost and Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was stable, and the marginal support of cost weakened. The profitability rate of steel mills remained in the range of 38% - 40%, and the profit could support blast - furnace production. However, pressure was emerging at the raw material end: the port inventory of iron ore exceeded 170 million tons, reaching a five - year high; the import of coking coal continued to increase, and the cost support weakened [4]. - Macro - level: In 2026, the policy expectations at the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan" increased. The central budgetary investment, underground pipeline network, urban renewal and other projects were pre - issued, and the expectation of infrastructure support was enhanced. However, in the short term, affected by the 10% tariff increase on imported goods by the United States, the market sentiment was cautious. Coupled with the uncertainty of the post - Spring Festival demand recovery rhythm, the market entered a "policy game period" [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: The Two Sessions are approaching, the absolute inventory level is still at a historical low, policy expectations are rising, and the supply side is contracting [5]. - Bearish Factors: Terminal demand remains sluggish, cost support weakens, inventory continues to accumulate, the inventory depletion speed slows down, and the capital position structure is bearish [5].