宏观不确定性主导下短期商品或震荡偏强：大宗商品周度报告2026年2月25日-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the dominance of macro uncertainties, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend. The Fed officials' hawkish signals, the US government's tariff policies, and the tense situation between the US and Iran are the main factors affecting the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Before the holiday, the overall commodity market declined slightly by 0.23%. Precious metals led the gain at 3.29%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products with increases of 1.58% and 0.23% respectively. Black metals and energy - chemical products decreased by 1.1% and 1.11% respectively [2][6]. - Among specific varieties, the top - gainers were soybean No.1, silver, and apple, with increases of 6.76%, 5.23%, and 3.15% respectively. The top - losers were palm oil, asphalt, and styrene, with decreases of 3.63%, 3.56%, and 3.49% respectively [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market decreased slightly, and the fluctuations of each sector converged. The overall market scale increased significantly, and funds in each sector showed net inflows [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - During the holiday, Fed officials' signals were hawkish, and the US Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff policy and Trump's new 10% global tariff affected the US dollar. The tense US - Iran situation supported the oil price. In the short - term, the commodity market may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [2]. 3.3 Sector - specific Analysis - Precious Metals: Overseas precious metals prices soared after sharp fluctuations during the holiday. With the US GDP falling short of expectations, strong core PCE, and the weakening US dollar due to the tariff policy ruling, and the lack of substantial progress in US - Iran negotiations, the strength of precious metals may continue [3]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Affected by the Spring Festival, terminal demand and investment weakened. The market believes that the Fed has internal differences, and the US dollar's upward trend has ended. Most varieties' inventories increased, but some supply - side supports remained. In the short - term, non - ferrous metals may be more likely to rise than fall [3]. - Black Metals: The apparent demand for rebar dropped to a low, and production remained at a low level. The inventory accumulation was lower than the same period in previous years. After the holiday, iron - water production is expected to continue the recovery trend, and there is also some restocking demand. Overseas iron - ore swaps weakened during the holiday, and concerns about iron - ore oversupply persisted. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. The sector may fluctuate in the short - term [3]. - Energy: International oil prices continued to rise during the holiday. The US - Iran situation affecting the Strait of Hormuz and the unexpected drawdown of US crude and gasoline inventories in EIA data on February 20th pushed up oil prices. The next round of US - Iran negotiations is scheduled for February 26th in Geneva, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market's fluctuations in the next two weeks [4]. - Chemical Industry: The strong oil price provides cost support, and the warming macro - sentiment is beneficial. After the holiday, domestic downstream industries will gradually resume work. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation may improve in the second quarter due to planned maintenance and expected demand recovery. For polypropylene, considering controllable supply pressure, rigid demand from downstream factories, and significant cost influence, the price may trend upward [4]. - Agricultural Products: During the holiday, the supply - demand structure of the new US soybean crop tightened year - on - year, and the optimistic expectation of the US biodiesel policy supported the strength of overseas oilseeds. The good short - term export and crushing data of US soybeans boosted prices, but the tariff policy may bring uncertainties to US soybean exports [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns, with an average return rate of about 1.37% - 1.75%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,182.54 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.20%. The trading volume decreased by 57.09% [36]. - The energy - chemical ETF (represented by the Jianxin Energy - Chemical Futures ETF) had a return rate of 0.14%, with a scale of 21.13 billion yuan and a growth rate of 1.79%. The trading volume decreased by 33.79% [36]. - The soybean meal ETF (represented by the Huaxia Feed Soybean Meal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 2.26%, with a scale of 27.19 billion yuan and a growth rate of 0.43%. The trading volume increased by 3.91% [36]. - The non - ferrous metal ETF (represented by the Dacheng Non - Ferrous Metal Futures ETF) had a return rate of 1.34%, with a scale of 76.79 billion yuan and a decline rate of 2.09%. The trading volume decreased by 36.37% [36]. - The silver fund (represented by the Guotou Ruixin Silver Futures (LOF)) had a return rate of 6.32%, with a scale of 104.47 billion yuan and no change in scale. The trading volume increased by 565.95% [36].