有色金属日报-20260225

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly specified [2] - Aluminum: Not clearly specified [3][6] - Alumina: Not clearly specified [3] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly specified [3] - Zinc: Not clearly specified [4] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Slightly bullish [7] - Tin: Not clearly specified [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly specified [9] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly specified [10] - Polysilicon: Bearish [11] Core Views - The market is weighing the strength of post - holiday peak - season consumption in China and assessing the risk of US tariff changes, and the global exchange's visible copper inventory is high. Copper prices may adjust to the MA60 moving average [2] - Aluminum inventory has increased seasonally, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 23,000 - 24,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy's spread with Shanghai aluminum will be weaker than in previous years. Alumina is in range - bound trading [3] - Glencore's 2026 zinc concentrate production is expected to be cut by nearly 200,000 tons, and the export window of domestic zinc ingots is approaching. Short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 24,200 - 25,600 yuan per ton [4] - Aluminum prices are at a low level, with cost support but insufficient consumption recovery. The import window is open, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan per ton [6] - Nickel is influenced by the rebound of the metal periphery and the expected reduction of Indonesian ore production, but high inventory is a concern. Short - term trend is slightly bullish [7] - Tin prices have risen significantly, and in the traditional off - season, Indonesian supply is stable. It is recommended to observe the change of out - of - the - money call option premiums [8] - Lithium carbonate is in a strong shock, but downstream trading willingness is weak. Technical analysis shows a strong - shock trend [9] - Industrial silicon demand is weak, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the resumption and start - up rhythm of large factories in March [10] - Polysilicon production has decreased in February, but downstream silicon wafer production cuts exceed expectations, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be weak [11] Summaries by Metal Copper - Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed up in shock, and the spot price was 102,065 yuan. The spread in Shanghai was - 180 yuan, and in Guangdong it was - 220 yuan. It is recommended to continue the inter - period reverse arbitrage of near - month contracts, and copper prices may adjust to the MA60 moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum followed the non - ferrous metals to oscillate strongly. The spot spreads in East China, Central China, and Foshan expanded. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 211,000 tons to 1.125 million tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 74,000 tons to 383,000 tons. Cast aluminum alloy follows Shanghai aluminum, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years. Alumina's over - supply situation has improved, but the upward driving force is limited, and it is in range - bound trading [3] Zinc - Glencore's 2026 zinc concentrate production is expected to be cut by nearly 200,000 tons. The export window of domestic zinc ingots is approaching, and short - term zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 24,200 - 25,600 yuan per ton [4] Aluminum - The average price of SMM 1 aluminum is 16,525 yuan per ton, with a spread of - 150 yuan per ton against the near - month contract. The import window is open, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan per ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel continued to rebound. It is affected by the rebound of the metal periphery and the expected reduction of Indonesian ore production, but high inventory is a concern. Short - term trend is slightly bullish [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased significantly with increased positions, breaking through the 400,000 - yuan mark. In January, Indonesia's tin ingot exports increased year - on - year, and in February, the tin ingot exchange in the country completed 3,030 tons of transactions. It is recommended to observe the change of out - of - the - money call option premiums [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a strong shock. There are concerns about the supply side, but downstream trading willingness is weak. Technical analysis shows a strong - shock trend [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed slightly up. The downstream silicone开工率 is about 60%, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption and start - up rhythm of large factories in March [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures closed slightly down. The acquisition announcement of leading enterprises has limited impact on market sentiment. Production has decreased in February, but downstream silicon wafer production cuts exceed expectations, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be weak [11]