绿茶集团（06831）：25年经调净利同增33%-47%，开店+同店+利润率优化共振

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 7.42 HKD and a fair value of 10.35 HKD [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.53 to 5.01 billion RMB for the full year 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 18% to 31%. The net profit is projected to be between 460 to 510 million RMB, with a growth of 31% to 45% [8]. - The company plans to continue its store expansion, targeting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27% from 2025 to 2027, with an estimated total of around 600 stores by the end of 2025 [8]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong same-store sales growth in the second half of 2025, outperforming the industry, with a projected low single-digit growth [8]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with net profit margins projected to increase to 10.1% and adjusted net profit margins to 10.3% in the second half of 2025, driven by scale effects and store optimization [8]. - The company is in a rapid growth phase, with high revenue growth assurance from store expansion and same-store sales, and is expected to achieve net profits of 490 million, 620 million, and 780 million RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. Financial Projections - Main revenue is projected to grow from 3.59 billion RMB in 2023 to 7.37 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 51.1%, 6.9%, 24.0%, 25.9%, and 23.0% respectively [3][12]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 799 million RMB in 2023 to 1.45 billion RMB in 2027 [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from 296 million RMB in 2023 to 777 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 18.5%, 41.0%, 25.4%, and 25.6% for the subsequent years [3][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.73 RMB in 2025, 0.92 RMB in 2026, and 1.15 RMB in 2027 [3].