科创债棱镜：科创债足够拥挤吗?

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The science and technology innovation bond market will continue to fluctuate in the short - term after the Spring Festival. Short - duration, high - grade bonds and ETF component bonds will perform better. The investment strategy can focus on 1 - 3 - year AAA bonds for their strong liquidity, which is convenient for band operations and controlling drawdowns [4][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First - level Issuance Scale and Structure - Supply of science and technology innovation bonds decreased before the festival. From February 9 to February 13, 2026, the new supply reached 29.28 billion yuan. Due to the holiday, the scale shrank significantly compared with the previous week. The issuance structure was mainly 1 - year - or - less varieties in the inter - bank market, and there were also 5 - year varieties issued by high - quality leading companies like CATL [2][12] - In terms of new bond subscriptions, science and technology innovation bonds were less popular than ordinary credit bonds. The market preferred to snap up high - grade, short - duration bonds, and ETF component bonds were more favored by institutions [2][12] 3.2 Second - level Trading Activity and Pricing - Rating of outstanding science and technology innovation bonds is highly concentrated. Bonds with an implied rating of AA+ or above account for 73.7%, and AA - rated medium - quality bonds account for 22.1%, reflecting the financing needs of some small and medium - sized science and technology innovation entities. The industry distribution is dominated by traditional industries, and bonds in the building decoration, public utilities, and comprehensive industries account for 38.8%. There is an excess spread of over 16bp in the textile and apparel, communication, and non - bank financial industries compared to all credit bonds in these industries [3][20] - In terms of liquidity, the weekly turnover rate of science and technology innovation bonds decreased by 0.11% week - on - week, in line with the pre - Spring Festival trading slump. The reading was between that of urban investment bonds and ordinary industrial bonds. The number of weekly transactions dropped below 800, and 1 - 3 - year varieties accounted for 51% of the transactions. Investors preferred low - volatility and high - liquidity targets [3][27] - From the yield perspective, science and technology innovation bonds showed a structural bull market in the week before the Spring Festival. The yield curve of short - duration, high - grade science and technology innovation bonds flattened, driven by loose capital and support from allocation funds. The yield of 3 - 5 - year exchange - traded science and technology innovation bonds rose slightly to 2.01%, with limited downward space in the future. The overall trading yield of science and technology innovation bonds was basically close to the market valuation, with an average low - valuation trading margin within 1.4bp [3][32] - Regarding the internal price comparison of science and technology innovation bonds, the spread between the index component bonds and non - component bonds widened to 27.1bp in the latest week, and the spread between inter - bank bonds and component bonds widened to 8.5bp. For the 1 - 3 - year segment, there is nearly 20bp of compression space between inter - bank bonds and index component bonds [4][36]