2025年基金市场回顾及2026年展望：革故鼎新，质启未来

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views The report reviews the fund market in 2025, including the overall situation of the public - offering fund industry, the development of various sub - categories of public - offering funds, and the situation of private - offering securities investment funds. It also provides a market outlook for 2026 and selects several types of funds for attention. In 2025, the public - offering fund market achieved significant positive returns, and the private - offering securities investment fund market expanded in scale. In 2026, with the resonance of China's and the US policies, the A - share market is expected to shift from liquidity - driven to profit - driven, and attention should be paid to specific investment directions and the rhythm of the fixed - income market [2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public Fund Overall Overview - Asset Management Market Overview: By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of China's asset management business reached 80.03 trillion yuan. Public - offering funds and private - offering funds drove the growth of the asset management scale, with public - offering funds contributing 3.92 trillion yuan to the scale growth. The public - offering fund market maintained strong vitality, with a total scale of 36.67 trillion yuan and a total share of 31.30 trillion shares by the end of 2025, showing year - on - year growth [16][20]. - Public Fund New - issuance Market: In 2025, stock - type and bond - type funds were the main new - issuance products. The new - issuance volume of stock - type funds was large, and the new - issuance scale was comparable to that of bond - type funds, mainly relying on passive products [40]. - Non - monetary Head Managers of Public Funds: Since 2021, the top - three managers in terms of non - monetary fund scale have been relatively stable. In 2025, E Fund, China Asset Management, and GF Fund had different product line focuses in terms of stock and incremental scale. Huatai - Peregrine Fund and Invesco Great Wall Fund showed good performance [47][48]. - Performance of Public Fund Products: In 2025, the public - offering fund market achieved significant positive returns. Commodity - type funds represented by gold performed excellently, and stock - type funds also received good returns with reduced volatility and drawdown [3][56]. 3.2 Hot Topics in the Fund Industry - Reform of Public - offering Fund Policies: In 2025, a series of reform measures were introduced to promote the transformation of the public - offering fund industry from "scale - oriented" to "return - oriented" [59]. - New - style Floating - rate Funds: In 2025, new - style floating - rate funds were successively launched, which had important impacts on the public - offering fund market, such as guiding long - term holding and strengthening the binding mechanism between fund companies and investors [67][69]. - Commercial Real Estate REITs: In 2025, the pilot of commercial real estate REITs was officially launched, and 12 products had been officially declared by February 13, 2026 [73][75]. - Development of the Fund Investment Advisory Industry: Policy support, product expansion, and institutional empowerment promoted the development of the fund investment advisory industry. The investment scope of fund investment advisors was gradually broadened, and leading public - offering funds entered the market [77][79]. 3.3 Overview of Sub - categories of Public Funds - Active Equity Funds: In 2025, the scale of active equity funds rebounded, with an average return of 33.29%. Funds focusing on the AI industry chain led the gains [101]. - Industry Theme Funds: By the end of 2025, there were 2,009 industry theme funds, with a significant increase in scale. Funds in technology communication, large - scale technology, and large - scale manufacturing sectors led the gains [4][150]. - Active Fixed - income Funds: In the low - interest - rate environment and the rising equity market in 2025, the management pressure of pure - bond portfolios increased, while the scale of bond - containing funds increased significantly [170][174]. - Passive Funds: By the end of 2025, the total scale of passive funds exceeded 7.5 trillion yuan. ETFs continued to expand, and industry themes and bonds frequently created hot topics [205]. - FOF Funds: By the end of 2025, the total scale of FOF funds increased significantly, with performance showing significant differentiation. The new - issuance market recovered [296][309]. - Quantitative Funds: The scale of quantitative funds expanded rapidly, with index - enhanced funds dominating the scale. The new - issuance market of A500 and ChiNext/Science and Technology Innovation Board index - enhanced funds was hot, and small - cap products had outstanding returns [334][346]. 3.4 Overall Situation of Private - offering Securities Investment Funds - Existing Situation: By the end of December 2025, the existing scale of private - offering securities investment funds reached a record high of 7.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.82%. The number of funds decreased, and fund managers continued to be cleared out [377]. - New - issuance Market: In 2025, the number and scale of newly - registered private - offering securities investment funds both increased. The access for new fund managers remained strict [382]. - Industry Pattern: The number of private - offering funds with a scale of over 10 billion yuan increased, while the number of those with a scale of less than 500 million yuan decreased significantly [391]. - Market Trends: In 2025, the scale of quantitative private - offering funds expanded again, and 14 new quantitative private - offering funds exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale. The regulatory rules for program trading were implemented [394][399]. - Market Trends: The number of insurance - funded private - offering securities investment funds increased to 7, and insurance funds increased their layout in the equity market through private - offering funds [400]. 3.5 Market Outlook in 2026 - Macroeconomic Outlook: In 2026, China's fiscal policy aims to balance "stable growth" and "structural transformation." If the fiscal space is fully released, a series of positive macroeconomic changes are expected. The total demand growth rate is expected to return to expansion [402][404]. - Investment Direction: In the equity market, attention should be paid to computing power, AI applications, AI power, cutting - edge technologies proposed in the 14th Five - Year Plan, pro - cyclical sectors, and domestic demand expansion and consumption recovery. In the fixed - income market, the interest rate center may rise, and the trading rhythm should be grasped [9]. - Fund Selection: The report selects several types of funds, including all - market investment equity funds, equity funds under different investment themes, fixed - income funds, and index - enhanced funds [10][11][12].