银河期货鸡蛋日报-20260225

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance in the early stage, the market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption enters the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. It is advisable to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3778, JD05 at 3429, and JD09 at 3819, with no change from the previous day. The 01 - 05 spread was 349, 05 - 09 was - 390, and 09 - 01 was 41, all unchanged [2]. - Ratio of Egg to Feed: The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to corn were 1.64, 1.46, and 1.61 respectively, with a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day. The ratios of 01, 05, and 09 eggs to soybean meal were 1.26, 1.21, and 1.30 respectively, with a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day [2]. 2. Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The national mainstream price remained stable, with prices in most regions such as Beijing, Northeast China, and Shandong remaining unchanged [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The prices in various regions such as Handan, Shijiazhuang, and Jiaozuo remained stable [2][5]. 3. Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of culled chickens was 4.43 yuan/jin, with no change; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, with no change. The average price of corn was 2380 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3182 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.62 yuan, with no change [2]. - Profit: The profit per feather was - 3.05 yuan, an increase of 1.69 yuan compared to the previous day [2]. 4. Fundamental Information - Egg Production and Sales: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The monthly output of chicks from sample enterprises in January was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9% and little change year - on - year. As of the week of February 12, the sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - Culling Situation: In the week of February 12, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - Inventory and Profit: As of February 12, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, the same as the previous week. The weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 13.12 yuan/feather, the same as the previous week [5]. 5. Trading Logic - The good profit performance in the early stage has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the off - season of egg consumption after the Spring Festival, although the inventory has been alleviated, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction [6]. 6. Trading Strategy - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7].