粕类日报：市场扰动增加，盘面大幅上涨-20260225

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "粕类日报 2026 年 2 月 25 日" [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] - Contact: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2989, 2831, and 2936 respectively, with price increases of 39, 50, and 46. The spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao shows a downward trend [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the closing prices of contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 2293, 2312, and 2364 respectively, with price increases of 30, 22, and 22. The spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi has different changes [3]. Month - to - Month Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 - spread is 158 (down 11 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 105 (up 4 from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is - 53 (up 7 from yesterday) [3]. - For rapeseed meal, the 15 - spread is - 19 (up 8 from yesterday), the 59 - spread is - 52 (unchanged from yesterday), and the 91 - spread is 71 (down 8 from yesterday) [3]. Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 05 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 519 (up from yesterday), the 09 spread is 572 (up from yesterday), and the 01 oil - meal ratio is 2.906 (down from yesterday) [3]. Spot Price Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 501 (down 10 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal is 170 (down 40 from yesterday), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal is 811 (up 10 from yesterday) [3] Group 3: Market Review - The US soybean futures continued to rise, possibly driven by soybean meal. Factors such as improved exports and产区 weather are relatively positive. South American market quotes remained stable, with limited overall pressure [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures showed a significant upward trend, mainly due to market news disturbances. The subsequent supply change is the main influencing factor. Rapeseed meal futures followed the rise of soybean meal, with relatively limited changes. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal widened [3]. - The month - to - month spreads of soybean meal futures decreased, mainly driven by the unilateral rise. The supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is gradually improving, and the month - to - month spreads of rapeseed meal futures mainly fluctuated [3]. Group 4: Fundamental Analysis International Market - According to the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean ending stocks remain at around 350 million bushels, higher than market expectations, mainly because exports were not increased. Although US soybean exports have improved, the overall supply - demand situation is still relatively loose [4]. - In South America, the supply - side influence has increased recently. The growth of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is good, and the harvest is progressing smoothly. The monthly supply - demand report raised Brazil's soybean production. With limited demand growth for new - crop soybeans in Brazil, exports are expected to increase significantly, but this is still subject to actual yield changes in the short term. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance, with obvious export growth. The demand - side support for the old - crop market still exists. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly, with the pressure improving compared to before, but the export growth space may be relatively limited [4]. Domestic Market - The domestic spot supply is gradually recovering. The oil mill operating rate, which had decreased before, has started to rise recently, but the overall quantity is less than before. The提货 volume has also decreased slightly, and the inventory is declining. Market transactions have decreased recently, and the overall market demand is average. The uncertainty of long - term supply has decreased, and prices have already reflected the positive factors [6]. - As of February 20, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 37,200 tons, the operating rate was 1.02%, the soybean inventory was 5.1954 million tons, an increase of 421,500 tons (8.83%) from last week and an increase of 181,200 tons (3.61%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 842,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons (0.37%) from last week and an increase of 343,700 tons (68.91%) year - on - year [6]. - The domestic rapeseed meal demand is generally average. The oil mill operating rate has increased compared to last week. It is expected that the crushing volume in the week ending February 20 was 0 tons. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has increased but remains at a low level. The supply volume remains low, and although the inventory of granular rapeseed meal has decreased, it is still at a relatively high level, and there is still overall supply pressure. Although there is uncertainty in the subsequent supply of rapeseed and rapeseed meal, the demand is also average, and there is still pressure on the near - term spot, so rapeseed meal is expected to mainly fluctuate [6]. Group 5: Logic Analysis - The recent drivers of US soybeans are mainly concentrated in the macro - aspect, and the overall positive reaction is relatively sufficient. It is relatively difficult for prices to rise further [7]. - There are certain disturbances in South American weather, mainly in the southern region, and the relatively wet conditions in some parts of Brazil have affected the soybean harvest progress. However, overall, the impact on yield is expected to be relatively limited. The high South American quotes are mainly because the pressure has not been fully reflected, and prices are expected to mainly fluctuate [7]. - The domestic soybean meal futures are running strongly, mainly affected by market information disturbances, but the actual impact amplitude is limited. The market shipment volume is relatively low, which may have a certain impact on subsequent supply, but the overall quantity is still relatively sufficient, and the unilateral upward space is limited. In a situation of loose supply, it is also relatively difficult for the month - to - month spreads to rise further [7]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures are running strongly, mainly driven by the rise of soybean meal. The sustainability may be relatively limited, and there may be certain pressure in the future. The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed meal are under certain pressure. Although the subsequent supply of soybean meal is tight, the spot price is generally in a downward state, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to mainly widen [7]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Adopt a mainly bearish approach [8]. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread [8]. - Options: Mainly adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [8]. Group 7: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the soybean pressing profit data from Brazil for different shipping months (April - August), including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in pressing profit compared to yesterday [9].