棉花、棉纱日报-20260225

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro sentiment during the holiday was positive, with gold, silver, non - ferrous metals, and crude oil rising significantly, which provided some support for cotton prices. There are no obvious negative factors in the cotton's fundamental situation. According to the USDA's annual report during the holiday, the global cotton production decreased by 3% (US production was adjusted down, and China's production was reduced by 9%). The supply is expected to be 2525 and consumption 2614, showing a relatively tight situation. If future consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved. As of February 12, US cotton signing was 10.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.33 million tons, and the cumulative signing was 192.79 million tons, 7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The current technical chart of the cotton futures has broken through the previous high, which may attract speculative funds. It is expected that the cotton futures price will likely maintain an upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70, and CY05 and CY09 contracts decreased by 45 and 25 respectively. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 decreased by 13325, and the open interest decreased by 270 [2]. - Spot Market: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 45, and the price of Cot A was 72.80 (compared with 73.20 before). The price of some other products such as polyester staple fiber increased, while the prices of some like viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [2]. - Spread: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, there are various spreads. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 spread was 5750, an increase of 25 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News - As of February 17, 2026, the net long - position ratio of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6 percentage points [4]. - As of February 13, the number of un - priced contracts of the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers decreased by 1090 to 5015, a week - on - week reduction of 60,000 tons. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2791 to 33299, equivalent to 760,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 tons. The total number of un - priced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48643, equivalent to 1.1 million tons, an increase of 2931 compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - On February 25, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang - outbound cotton was 0.1406 yuan/ton·km, a week - on - week decrease of 1.68%. It is expected that the freight rate index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [4]. - Trading Logic: The overall macro sentiment during the holiday was positive, and there were no obvious negative factors in the cotton's fundamentals. The global cotton production decreased, and the supply - demand situation was relatively tight. The signing situation improved, and the technical chart showed a breakthrough, so the price is expected to rise [5]. - Trading Strategy - Single - side: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will be mainly range - bound, and the technical performance of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is advisable to build long positions on dips and not to chase the high [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] - Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading of pure cotton yarn has not recovered. Spinning mills are mainly stocking up and fulfilling previous orders. Due to the significant increase in Zhengzhou cotton prices, most spinning mills and traders have suspended price quotations, and some spinning mills have raised prices by 300 - 500 yuan. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and the order situation after the downstream resumes work [8][9]. - The start - up rate of cotton fabric mills has gradually increased, but there are few inquiries for cotton grey fabrics, and there are few price quotations from fabric mills and traders. Due to the increase in raw material prices, fabric mills and traders have the intention to raise prices, and it is necessary to observe the acceptance of downstream customers. Currently, there are few new orders [9]. 3.3 Options - Option Data: The report provides data on several option contracts, including the option contract name, underlying contract price, closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other indicators. For example, the closing price of CF605C14600.CZC was 334.00, a decrease of 16.9%, and its implied volatility was 13.3% [11]. - Volatility: The 60 - day HV of cotton was 9.2812, with a slight increase compared with the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different, such as 13.3% for CF605 - C - 14600, 11.3% for CF605 - C - 14200, and 11.2% for CF605 - P - 13800 [11]. - Option Strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, the basis of cotton in different months (1 - month, 5 - month, 9 - month), the spread between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the spread between different cotton futures contracts (CF9 - 1, CF5 - 9) [14][15][20]