固定收益|点评报告：债市后续如何定价春节假期数据？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high - frequency data during the 2026 Spring Festival shows that the "quantity" of travel and tourism consumption continued to recover, but the price recovery lagged; the logistics was differentiated, with strong foreign trade resilience and weak production and consumption logistics; the volume of hotels and scenic spots increased while the price decreased, and the box office was weak; the real - estate market continued to be under pressure, with weak transactions in both new and second - hand housing. With the price increase in the second half of last year and the carry - over effect, it is highly likely that the subsequent fundamentals will shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price". Currently in a low - interest - rate environment in China, minor fundamental changes have limited impact on the bond market, and the view of a volatile bond market is maintained. The short - end of the bond market depends on the central bank, and the carry - trade strategy may continue. The long - end, especially the 30 - year treasury bond, needs to focus on fiscal efforts and the bank's carrying capacity. In the medium - term, the inflation theme should be monitored [1][4][7][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Travel: Long holidays release travel demand, and self - driving travel is popular - The demand for family visits and tourism during the Spring Festival was continuously released, and the overall passenger volume remained high. As of the sixth day of the first lunar month, during the first 21 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, the overall passenger volume increased by 6.0% year - on - year. Among different transportation modes, the waterway had the highest growth rate, with railway, civil aviation, highway, and waterway passenger volumes increasing by 5.3%, 5.5%, 6.0%, and 23.1% respectively [10]. - The cross - regional population flow during the Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 reached a new high in recent years, with a significant increase in travel willingness. The peak occurred on the sixth day of the first lunar month, with a 12.3% increase compared to 2025, a 20.6% increase compared to 2024, and a 46.9% increase compared to 2019 [10]. - There was an obvious characteristic of off - peak travel before the festival. The growth compared to 2025 was mainly concentrated in the post - festival peak, while the improvement compared to 2024 started from the 24th day of the twelfth lunar month. The growth compared to 2019 was throughout the whole period, indicating that the long holiday catalyzed the release of residents' travel demand [11]. - The travel choices during the Spring Festival travel rush in 2026 were dominated by self - driving, reflecting residents' preference for short - distance travel. The proportion of non - commercial highway (mainly private cars) flow reached 81.6%, a 11.9 - percentage - point increase compared to 2019 [18]. - The domestic flight volume, passenger volume, and occupancy rate remained prosperous, but the price recovery was weak, and the pattern of "trading price for volume" was difficult to reverse in the short term. The domestic flight volume increased by 4.0% year - on - year, the passenger volume increased by 6.5%, the occupancy rate increased by 1.2%, and the domestic oil - included ticket price decreased by 1.5% [22]. 3.2. Logistics: Foreign trade shows resilience, while production and consumption logistics weaken in advance - The national logistics near the Spring Festival in 2026 showed a pattern of "strong foreign - trade resilience, high - then - low production logistics, and early - weakening consumption logistics". The container throughput maintained a year - on - year positive growth of 9.3% - 12.2% in the four weeks before the festival, but the growth rate of the monitored port cargo throughput fluctuated and declined [34]. - The production logistics was high in the early stage and low in the later stage. The national highway truck traffic volume increased by 4.3% and 2.6% year - on - year in the four and three weeks before the festival respectively, but the growth rate slowed down and turned negative in the last two weeks before the festival, indicating a rapid contraction of production logistics near the holiday [34]. - The consumption logistics contracted in advance. The postal express collection volume declined from 9.2% four weeks before the festival to 0.5% one week before the festival, and the delivery volume declined from 7.9% to 1.4%, suggesting that the peak of New Year goods delivery was earlier than last year [34]. - The railway transportation was stable, and civil aviation continued to grow. The national railway freight volume fluctuated slightly around zero, and the civil aviation flight volume maintained a positive growth of 4.8% - 6.0% [34]. 3.3. Tourism Consumption: Hotels and Scenic Spots See Volume Increase but Price Decrease, and the Box Office is Weak - The hotel occupancy rate increased, but the price was under pressure. The occupancy rate of the overall sample of Chinese mainland hotels increased from 54.7% five weeks before the festival to 64.0% one week before the festival, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%. However, the revenue per available room (RevPAR) and the average daily rate (ADR) decreased compared to last year [40]. - The scenic spots' business improved. The number of tourists in many provincial - level key - monitored scenic spots increased significantly, and the revenue of some popular scenic spots also increased substantially. For example, the revenue of Zhangjiajie Huanglongdong increased by 79% [42][45]. - Hainan's tourism consumption recovered strongly, with both volume and price increasing. The number of passengers at Haikou Meilan Airport increased day by day, and the off - island duty - free shopping also rebounded significantly. From February 15 - 19, the shopping amount, number of people, and per - capita consumption were 13.8 billion yuan, 17.7 million person - times, and 7,797 yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 19%, 24.6%, and - 4.5% [45]. - The Spring Festival movie market had a weak performance in both volume and price. The 7 - day cumulative box office from New Year's Eve to the sixth day of the first lunar month was 5.09 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of only 86% compared to 2019, and the average ticket price decreased by 5% year - on - year [47]. 3.4. Real Estate: Both New and Second - hand Housing Transactions are Weak, and the Volume and Price in First - tier Cities are Declining - The new - housing market had a significant decline in transaction volume. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the two months before the Spring Festival in 2026 was significantly lower than the same period in the past five years. In the first week before the festival, it was only 1.102 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 36.6%, and during the Spring Festival week, it was 83,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4% [61]. - The second - hand housing market was weak in both volume and price. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities was only 247,200 square meters in the first week before the Spring Festival, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. The national second - hand housing listing price index continued to decline, with a 7.0% year - on - year decrease in the first week before the festival [61]. - The land market was also sluggish. The premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities was 2.42% in the first week before the festival, significantly lower than 9.86% in the same period last year [62]. 3.5. How will the Bond Market Price the Spring Festival Holiday Data? - The real - estate market is still in a downward pressure channel, with weak sales volume and price, especially in some first - tier cities where housing prices may decline at an accelerated pace. The consumer data shows a rapid recovery in volume but pressure on prices, continuing the "trading price for volume" trend. With the price increase in the second half of last year and the carry - over effect, it is likely that the fundamentals will shift from "trading price for volume" to "trading volume for price" [77]. - In the current low - interest - rate environment in China, minor fundamental changes have limited impact on the bond market. The view of a volatile bond market is maintained. The short - end of the bond market depends on the central bank, and the carry - trade strategy may continue. The long - end, especially the 30 - year treasury bond, needs to focus on fiscal efforts and the bank's carrying capacity. In the medium - term, the inflation theme should be monitored [77].