东吴证券晨会纪要2026-02-25-20260225

Macro Strategy - The market is currently in a structural chaos phase, but the overall index remains stable. The macro timing model for February 2026 has a score of 0, indicating a 78.57% probability of an increase in the A-share index over the next month, with an average increase of 3.37% [1][2][24] - There is a notable inflow of funds into sectors such as telecommunications, chips, chemicals, and oil and petrochemicals, while broad-based ETFs are experiencing outflows. This suggests a potential reduction in selling pressure from ETFs in the near future [1][2][24] - The cyclical industries, particularly oil and chemicals, are performing relatively well, while the non-ferrous metals sector is significantly affected by external macro events [1][2][24] Consumer Insights - The consumption during the Spring Festival showed a strong start, with daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increasing by 8.6% year-on-year in the first four days, compared to 4.1% last year [5][25] - There is a forecast for a moderate recovery in consumption at the beginning of the year, with retail sales growth expected to be between 5% and 2.5% for January-February, a significant rebound from around 1% at the end of last year [5][25] - The service consumption is expected to be the main support for overall consumption in 2026, while goods consumption may be weaker than last year [5][25] Industry Recommendations - Dongfang Electric (600875) is expected to see continuous growth in its energy equipment business, with projected net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.52 billion, and 5.44 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing growth rates of 20%, 29%, and 20% respectively [12][13] - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) is projected to have net profits of 940 million, 1.06 billion, and 1.3 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with an upward adjustment in profit expectations due to improved gross margins from cigarette exports [13] - Liyang Chip (688135) is expanding its high-end testing capacity and is expected to continue growing, with a revenue increase of 23.11% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [14] - Taige Pharmaceutical (300347) is positioned to benefit from the expanding clinical CRO market, with a market share increase from 8.7% to 12.8% from 2019 to 2023, indicating strong growth potential [18] Market Trends - The overseas market has shown signs of stabilizing liquidity, with expectations for improved sentiment. The A-share market is anticipated to remain optimistic if precious metals stabilize and U.S. tech stocks recover [22][27] - The bond market has performed strongly due to a loose liquidity environment, with the central bank injecting nearly 1.8 trillion yuan in liquidity through reverse repos [10][11] - The overall economic data from the U.S. is expected to be stronger than anticipated, which may compress the Fed's rate cut expectations in March-April [27]