避险情绪持续发酵，铂钯?幅

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - On February 25, 2026, the platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose significantly. The platinum main contract rose 7.03% to 586.0 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 4.50% to 457.95 yuan/gram. The uncertainty of US tariffs and the unclear situation in the US-Iran relationship led to the continuous fermentation of market risk - aversion sentiment, driving up the prices of platinum and palladium [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - Main Logic: The US Supreme Court's ruling on February 20 that the US President has no authority to impose large - scale tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, along with the escalating US - Iran tensions, has increased market risk - aversion sentiment. Zimbabwe's suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports may increase short - term supply concerns, further boosting platinum prices. However, since Zimbabwe mainly exports platinum and palladium in unforged or semi - manufactured forms rather than raw ore, the policy is expected to have little impact on the actual supply of platinum - group metals. In the long run, the US is still in an interest - rate cutting cycle, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit due to the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order is conducive to the long - term release of platinum price elasticity [4]. - Outlook: The price of platinum is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium and long term, considering the healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations [4]. Palladium - Main Logic: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side of palladium. On February 10, the US Department of Commerce issued a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on unforged palladium imported from Russia, with a tariff rate of 132.83%. The market's expectation of palladium tariffs has resurfaced, and Europe is also considering a new round of sanctions on Russian - produced palladium. The supply disruption continues, and the tight spot market supports the price. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. In general, although the long - term supply and demand is expected to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cutting expectation provide clear support for the price [5]. - Outlook: The price of palladium is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium and long term, due to the spot shortage and the improvement of the macro - environment [5]. Index Information - Special Indexes: On February 25, 2026, the commodity index was 2431.43, up 0.56%; the commodity 20 index was 2783.62, up 0.64%; the industrial products index was 2314.55, up 0.63% [52]. - Sector Index - Non - ferrous Metals Index: On February 25, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2710.08. The daily increase was 0.54%, the increase in the past 5 days was 0.57%, the decrease in the past month was 2.99%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 0.90% [54].