政策利好提振，盘?低位反弹

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Shanghai's real - estate favorable policies and the expected blast furnace production cuts during major meetings have warmed the market atmosphere, leading to a low - level rebound in the futures market. However, there are still inventory pressures in steel, iron ore, and other sectors, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the market's post - holiday demand expectations are average. The upside space of the sector's futures market is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore inventory pressure is still accumulating, and there are still weather - related supply disruptions. The market's post - holiday demand expectations are average, but the pressure has been released after the rapid decline of the futures market. With the upcoming Two Sessions, there are still macro - level expectations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. During the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of scrap steel were both weak, with limited fundamental drivers and little price fluctuation [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - After the Spring Festival, there is a slight growth expectation for both coke supply and demand. As logistics and transportation gradually recover, the coke inventory accumulation of coke enterprises will be alleviated, and the coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still restricted. The fundamental contradictions of coking coal are not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [2] 3.3 Alloys - In the manganese - silicon market, supply exceeds demand, and the upstream inventory is increasing. There is continuous pressure on the upper side of the futures market. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the room for further decline is limited under cost support. It is expected that the main contract will oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation. In the ferrosilicon market, supply and demand are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are not significant. The room for further decline in the futures market is limited under cost support, but there is no obvious upward driving force in the short term. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate at a low level around the cost [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions in glass, but the inventory of the middle and downstream is moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. Without more cold repairs, high inventory will always suppress prices. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering. Before the festival, the steel mill's production resumption accelerated, but the overall output was at a relatively low level. Demand was weak during the off - season and the holiday, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Although there are positive news on the supply and real - estate sides, and there are still policy expectations before the Two Sessions, the inventory pressure still exists, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the upside of the futures market is still under pressure [6] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and Australian shipments recovered. The arrival of goods continued to weaken, but is expected to pick up later. The demand side saw a marginal increase in rigid demand. The port inventory pressure was temporarily relieved, but the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating. The relaxation of real - estate purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosted market sentiment. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - After the Spring Festival, the arrival of scrap steel is slowly recovering, and the absolute level is still low. During the festival, most electric furnaces were shut down, and the daily consumption of scrap steel was at a seasonal low. The inventory is expected to decline. During the Spring Festival, supply and demand were both weak, with limited price fluctuations. After the festival, attention should be paid to policy guidance and actual demand [9] 3.5.4 Coke - During the Spring Festival, coke supply and demand were both weak. After the spot price increase was implemented, it remained stable, and the futures market followed the cost - end coking coal. After the festival, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand. As logistics recovers, the inventory accumulation of coke enterprises will be alleviated. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [10] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - During the Spring Festival, coking coal supply and demand were both weak, and the price oscillated. After the festival, the resumption of coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still restricted. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent. The spot price is expected to oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely under the influence of capital sentiment [11] 3.5.6 Glass - The spot price has risen, and the loss is limited, so there will be no large - scale cold repairs in the short term. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand has not recovered, and the real demand needs to be verified after the Lantern Festival. The large inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the glass valuation. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The daily production increased month - on - month. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for heavy soda ash will weaken due to the expected decline in glass melting. The overall procurement of light soda ash downstream has not changed much. The supply and demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the industry is still in the stage of clearing at the bottom of the cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long term [12] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Favorable real - estate policies and the expected blast furnace production cuts during major meetings have led to a strong upward oscillation of the manganese - silicon futures market. After the festival, the market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory is expected to increase. The current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost [14] 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The futures price of ferrosilicon has moved up slightly. The market is in a wait - and - see mood, and the cost support has slightly weakened. The supply and demand are both weak, and there is no obvious upward driving force in the short term. It is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost [15] 3.6 Index Information - On February 25, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2431.43, up 0.56%; the commodity 20 index was 2783.62, up 0.64%; the industrial products index was 2314.55, up 0.63%. The steel industry chain index on February 25, 2026, was 1911.09, with a daily increase of 0.97%, a 5 - day decline of 0.87%, a 1 - month decline of 3.06%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.28% [102][104]