上海发布“沪七条”房地产优化政策

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global market risk appetite continues to rise due to the increased difficulty of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiations. The real - effect of Shanghai's real - estate policy on the market should be rationally viewed. The short - term bond market is volatile, and there is a long - term adjustment risk. The prices of various commodities have different trends and influencing factors, and corresponding investment suggestions are put forward for each commodity [17][20][24] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US may raise the "global import tariff" on some countries to 15%. Gold prices are supported by the weakening of the US dollar index, US tariff policies, and the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations. However, the short - term interest rate cut willingness of the Fed is low, and gold prices continue to fluctuate. Silver is supported by low inventory, but its upward trend may not last [12] - Investment advice: Precious metals will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the upward trend of silver may be difficult to sustain [13] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Cuba fired at a US speedboat, and the US envoy requires the Iran nuclear agreement to be permanent, increasing the negotiation difficulty. The EU is evaluating that the new US tariffs may be higher than the 15% upper limit of the agreement. The global market risk preference continues to rise [14][15][17] - Investment advice: The US dollar will continue to fluctuate [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Shanghai issued the "Seven - Point Plan for Shanghai" to optimize real - estate policies, reducing the home - purchase threshold and releasing a positive policy signal. The real - estate sector rose, but the increase was limited. In the context of an aging population and income pressure, residents' ability to increase leverage is limited [19][20] - Investment advice: Hold stock index long positions in a balanced manner [21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Shanghai optimized real - estate policies, and the central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 95 billion yuan on that day. The real - estate policy has limited negative impact on the bond market. In the short term, the bond market sentiment is not likely to turn weak, and there is still rebound momentum in some periods. In the long term, the bond market is not optimistic [23][24] - Investment advice: The bond market will fluctuate in the short term, and there is still an adjustment risk in the long term [25] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating. After the Spring Festival, the supply of coking coal has increased, but the demand is weak. The coke market also has problems such as inventory accumulation and weak demand. The market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [26][27] - Investment advice: The market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [28] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Australia made an anti - dumping final review ruling on Chinese rebar, and Mexico launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese cold - rolled coils. After Shanghai relaxed real - estate purchase restrictions, steel prices rose, but the fundamental pressure is still obvious. The steel price is in the stage of oscillating and bottom - grinding in the short term [30][32] - Investment advice: The steel price will oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of undervalued prices [33] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - As of February 21, 2026, Brazil's cotton planting was 99.9% complete. After the festival, textile enterprises are resuming work. Some spinning enterprises have raised yarn prices, but the increase is less than that of cotton. The downstream market's acceptance of raw material price increases needs to be observed. The commercial cotton inventory is lower than last year, and the market is worried about the tight supply in the later period [34][36][37] - Investment advice: Zheng cotton is expected to be difficult to fall in the short term, and the market will be mainly oscillating strongly. Pay close attention to the macro - situation and downstream enterprise conditions [37] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina's weather will be drier this week, and the condition of soybean crops is declining. Brazil's soybean harvest is behind schedule, but exports are stable. In China, factors such as new purchases of US soybeans, reserve sales, and customs policies need to be focused on [38] - Investment advice: Temporarily view soybean meal with an oscillating mindset [40] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia urges the EU to restore market access for Indonesian palm oil products. From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production and exports decreased. The palm oil market may decline in production and exports in February, and the inventory is expected to fall to 250 - 260 million tons. In March, production is expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand in the sales area [41][42][43] - Investment advice: The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is expected to decline in February, and attention should be paid to the replenishment demand in the sales area in March [43] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - From February 12 - 18, 2026, the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises decreased. The progress of farmers selling corn is faster than in previous years. The downstream inventory is at a relatively high level, and the demand support may weaken. The corn futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [44][45] - Investment advice: Be vigilant against the technical correction risk after the optimistic sentiment fades. The corn futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [45] 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zimbabwe suspended the export of all raw ores and lithium concentrates. It is estimated that the monthly supply will be affected by 12,000 tons of LCE. In the short term, the impact on domestic smelters is controllable, but it will intensify the de - stocking. In the long term, it will affect the annual stocking trend. Be vigilant against the negative feedback from the demand side [46][47] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish mindset in the short term, and pay attention to the price correction after the supply increases in the medium term [48] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On February 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $49.85 per ton. The Shanghai lead price oscillated at a low level. The downstream consumption is lacking, and the inventory is high. The lead price will oscillate weakly, but the decline space is limited due to the cost support [49][50] - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider long positions in the medium term [50] 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On February 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $31.93 per ton. The zinc price oscillated. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic inventory increased. The downstream start - up speed is slow. The zinc price is recommended to be treated with a bullish mindset, and continue to hold the Call [51] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish mindset for the single - side trading, and continue to hold the previous Call. Observe for arbitrage [51] 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 380,000 tons. European copper processing enterprises warned about the shortage of raw material supply. Chile's new government may adjust mining policies. The macro - sentiment is warming up, which will support the non - ferrous metal prices. The short - term copper price is likely to oscillate strongly [52][53][56] - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish mindset for the single - side trading and continue to buy on dips. Observe for arbitrage [56] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On February 24, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $10 per ton. The supply of tin ore is expected to be tight in the long term. The downstream enterprises have not fully resumed work, and the spot market is cold. The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly and widely [57][58] - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to oscillate strongly and widely. Pay attention to the macro - situation, supply recovery, and post - festival consumption [58] 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is considering a small increase in production. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory increased significantly. The oil price oscillated weakly, and the market is concerned about the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [59][60][61] - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the changes in the US - Iran situation in the short term [62] 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Saudi Aramco cancelled the March loading plan due to force majeure, which stimulated the international market price to rise. The international market is expected to be strong in the short term [63] - Investment advice: The price is expected to be strong in the short term [65] 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt increased. The downstream demand has not fully recovered, and the market is in a weak state. The short - term asphalt price still has support [65][66] - Investment advice: The asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [67] 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses and production enterprises increased. The inventory accumulation speed is normal during the holiday, and the subsequent de - stocking speed needs to be observed [68][69][70] - Investment advice: Observe the de - stocking speed and geopolitical issues [71] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory increased slightly. The unloading and提货 speed are slow. Iranian devices are restarting. Before the geopolitical issues are resolved, continue to observe methanol. After the issues are resolved, consider short - selling or 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage [72][74] - Investment advice: Observe methanol before the geopolitical issues are resolved, and consider short - selling or 5 - 9 reverse arbitrage after the issues are resolved [75] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in East China ports increased significantly. The pure benzene port inventory is high, and the de - stocking is difficult before mid - March. The styrene is suppressed by potential supply increases. Pay attention to the actual inventory accumulation in February and the change of trading logic [76][77] - Investment advice: The pure benzene price may rise after short - term oscillation. The styrene is suppressed by supply increases. Pay attention to inventory accumulation and trading logic changes [78] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival. The international urea price is easy to rise. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand for spring plowing is approaching. The urea price is expected to be strong, but policy intervention should be noted [79][81] - Investment advice: Market participants should replenish inventory based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations. The urea futures market should be treated with an oscillating mindset [82] 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The opening price of MSK from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the 11th week decreased, and the shipping capacity pressure still exists. The spot freight rate in March is expected to decline. The market sentiment has shifted from expectation - driven to reality - driven [83] - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 04 contract at high prices in the short term [83]