金信期货日刊-20260226

Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on February 26, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Shanghai silver futures is high - volatility shock, and the medium - term strategy is to go long on dips without chasing high prices [3] - A - shares continued to rise today with increased trading volume. Technically, the 60 - minute chart shows a box - shaped shock, and there is a downward adjustment requirement in the small - cycle tomorrow morning. It is recommended to go long on dips tomorrow [7] - Gold opened significantly higher due to the holiday rise in the overseas market, and the overall trend is treated as shock - biased upward [12] - For iron ore, the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start. Technically, although the black series strengthened today driven by news, the trend remains bearish [15][16] - The short - term trend of glass is unclear, and it should be treated as a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday [19][20] - Methanol is difficult to continue a sharp rise after a spike because its supply - demand pattern does not support continuous price increases. The high domestic methanol plant operating rate and the expected accumulation of port inventory after the holiday put pressure on the price [22] - For pulp, there are potential positive factors such as the potential bankruptcy risk of a French pulp mill, the stabilization and rebound of European and American softwood pulp prices, and the long - term positive drive of the domestic new national standard draft [26] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - On February 25, the main contract of Shanghai silver opened and closed higher, with a closing increase of over 4.57%. The main reason was the sharp rise in the overseas market during the Spring Festival due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the domestic market made up for the rise after the holiday, with significant increase in capital inflow and trading volume [4] - In the short term, Shanghai silver will follow the London silver to fluctuate widely in the range of 70 - 100 US dollars per ounce, corresponding to the core support of the domestic price at 19,000 yuan per kilogram and the strong resistance area at 25,000 yuan per kilogram. Do not blindly chase high prices, and be wary of rapid corrections caused by the cooling of geopolitical sentiment or the rebound of the US dollar. The operation should focus on short - term high - selling and low - buying with light positions and stop - losses [4][5] - In the medium term, the logic remains bullish, mainly because of the continuous supply - demand gap of silver, the recovery of industrial demand in photovoltaic and AI servers, and the macro - positive factor of the downward trend of real interest rates under the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Deploy long positions in batches and strictly control position and leverage risks [5] A - shares - A - shares continued to rise today with increased trading volume. Technically, the 60 - minute chart shows a box - shaped shock, and there is a downward adjustment requirement in the small - cycle tomorrow morning. It is recommended to go long on dips tomorrow [7] Gold - Gold opened significantly higher due to the holiday rise in the overseas market, and the overall trend is treated as shock - biased upward [12] Iron Ore - The shipping from Australia and Brazil maintains a normal rhythm. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the period of mine production capacity release, and the expectation of loose supply still exists. On the demand side, although the resumption of production of steel mills after the holiday may have a certain driving effect, the start of terminal demand still needs time. Attention should be paid to the impact of policy and sentiment. Technically, although the black series strengthened today driven by news, the trend remains bearish [15][16] Glass - The short - term trend of glass is unclear, and it should be treated as a wide - range shock. The daily melting volume has a slight reduction, and the factory inventory has accumulated again during the holiday in the seasonal off - season. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of deep - processing enterprises after the holiday [19][20] Methanol - Methanol is difficult to continue a sharp rise after a spike because its supply - demand pattern does not support continuous price increases. The high domestic methanol plant operating rate and the expected accumulation of port inventory after the holiday put pressure on the price [22] Pulp - There are potential positive factors for pulp: first, a French pulp mill has a potential bankruptcy risk, which needs to be verified in March; second, the prices of European and American softwood pulp have stabilized and rebounded, and attention should be paid to whether the consumption in Europe and America can improve earlier than that in China; third, the domestic new national standard draft has a long - term positive drive [26]