Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current low price of raw sugar and its continuous discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price suggest a possibility of reducing the sugar - to - cane ratio in the new Brazilian sugar season after April. Domestically, high inventory suppresses sugar prices in the short - term, but there may be a rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar harvest [2][3]. - For cotton, after the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in positions and prices, speculating on the peak season in March in advance. If the downstream startup situation after the festival is favorable, there is still room for price increase, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4][7]. - For protein meal, due to the rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the price of soybean meal increased. Fundamentally, the improvement in US soybean export sales and China's expected increase in US soybean purchases drive up the CBOT soybean price. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [9][10]. - For oils, due to the rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the short - term price of soybean oil is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. Fundamentally, the low - level inventories in China and India at the end of January and the decline in Malaysian exports in February make the oil prices weak, but the medium - term outlook is bullish, and the strategy is to wait for the prices to stop falling at low levels before buying [12][15]. - For eggs, the opening price after the Spring Festival is neutral, with limited inventory accumulation. The short - term spot price is expected to decline slightly, and the near - month futures may bottom out. The far - end futures need to pay attention to valuation pressure [17][18]. - For pigs, the market supply is large, and the consumption is weak. The spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price will continue to squeeze the premium, especially for the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, pay attention to the support for the far - month contracts due to the increasing sentiment of hoarding and secondary fattening [20][21]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Data: An analysis institution estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 sugar season will be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. As of February 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased to 43 from 53 the previous week, and the sugar quantity decreased to 1.577 million tons from 1.83 million tons. As of February 15, 2026, India's sugar production reached 22.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.74 million tons; Thailand's sugar production was 6.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.35 million tons. In January 2026, China produced 3.21 million tons of sugar, with a cumulative production of 6.89 million tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, a year - on - year decrease of 0.602 million tons; the cumulative sales volume was 2.7 million tons, and the cumulative sales - to - production ratio was 39.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.75 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 4.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.43 million tons. In December 2025, China imported 0.58 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 0.19 million tons [2]. - Strategy: Do not be overly bearish. Domestically, maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term and expect a possible rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar harvest [3]. Cotton - Market Data: From February 5 to 12, 2026, the US current - year cotton export sales reached 106,800 tons, a new high for the week in 2026, with a cumulative export sales of 1.9899 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 142,900 tons. As of February 6, the spinning mill's operating rate was 60.5%, a 3.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.53 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons from the previous week. In January 2026, the predicted global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from the December 2025 prediction, and an increase of 200,000 tons from the previous year. In December 2025, China imported 0.18 million tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 0.04 million tons [4][6]. - Strategy: After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in positions and prices. Pay attention to the downstream startup situation after the festival. If it is favorable, there is still room for price increase, and the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. Protein Meal - Market Data: From February 5 to 12, 2026, the US exported 0.8 million tons of soybeans, with a current - year cumulative export of 35.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.63 million tons. As of February 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 32.3%, a 4.1 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year. From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 0.26 million tons from the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 5.91 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week; the sample oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 0.9 million tons, an increase of 0.04 million tons from the previous week. In January 2026, the predicted global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December 2025 prediction, and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous year [9]. - Strategy: Due to the rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the price of soybean meal increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [10]. Oils - Market Data: From February 1 to 20, 2026, the palm oil production in southern Malaysia decreased by 22.24% month - on - month. In January 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons from the previous month; the export volume was 1.48 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons from the previous month; the inventory was 2.82 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from the previous month. From February 1 to 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product export volume decreased compared with the previous month. As of the end of January 2026, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month. From January 30 to February 6, 2026, the domestic sample data of the three major oils' inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 1.92 million tons. Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% in 2026 and will increase the crude palm oil export fee from 10% to 12.5% from March 1, 2026 [12][14]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the price of soybean oil is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. The medium - term outlook is bullish, and wait for the prices to stop falling at low levels before buying [15]. Eggs - Market Data: The national egg price was stable with a few increases yesterday. The average price in the main production areas increased slightly by 0.01 yuan to 2.86 yuan per catty. The supply is normal, and traders mostly replenish stocks after the Spring Festival, with a normal market digestion speed [17]. - Strategy: The opening price after the Spring Festival is neutral, with limited inventory accumulation. The short - term spot price is expected to decline slightly, and the near - month futures may bottom out. The far - end futures need to pay attention to valuation pressure [18]. Pigs - Market Data: The domestic pig price continued to decline yesterday, with a narrowing decline. The supply of marketable pigs is abundant, and the demand support is limited [20]. - Strategy: The market supply is large, and the consumption is weak. The spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price will continue to squeeze the premium, especially for the near - month contracts. In the medium - term, pay attention to the support for the far - month contracts due to the increasing sentiment of hoarding and secondary fattening [21].
2026-02-26：五矿期货农产品早报-20260226
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-26 01:21