铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, on February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's practice of imposing tariffs globally under the IEEPA was invalid. Trump then imposed a 10% tariff under Section 122 and raised it to 15%, while launching multiple trade investigations. The US Q4 2025 real GDP initial annualized growth was 1.4%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 2.8% and the previous value of 4.4%. The market risk appetite was weak, with precious metals strong, industrial metals and US stocks under pressure, and the 10Y US Treasury yield falling to 4.04%. [2] - Domestically, during the Spring Festival, the passenger flow and consumption data were generally positive. The national Spring Festival travel cross - regional passenger transport reached a record high, and holiday consumption increased steadily. In February, it was an economic data and policy vacuum period, and the market focus might shift to the economic situation at the beginning of the year and the policy expectations of the Two Sessions in early March. [3] - For precious metals, the uncertainty of US tariffs increased, and gold and silver prices strengthened. The inflation in the US showed sticky characteristics, and the Fed's internal policy differences were significant, suppressing the market's rapid interest - rate cut expectations. Trump's confrontation with the Supreme Court added uncertainty, and it was expected that gold prices would continue to be volatile and strong, while silver prices would maintain high volatility. [4][5] - For copper, although the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs did not directly affect copper, Trump's tariff increase and geopolitical factors led to an increase in market risk aversion. The reduction of future production expectations of key mines and the potential mismatch of global inventories were expected to limit the adjustment space of copper prices, and copper prices might continue to rebound in the short term. [6][7] - For aluminum, the LME aluminum price fluctuated narrowly during the Spring Festival. The macro - environment was neutral to positive. In the short term, the weak supply - demand seasonality might suppress the aluminum price, but the medium - to - long - term outlook was positive due to factors such as expected Fed easing, potential production cuts in Mozambique, and consumption growth. [8][9] - For zinc, the macro - environment was uncertain, and the re - emergence of AI concerns put pressure on the market. The unclear situation in the Middle East might affect raw material supply, but the Spring Festival inventory accumulation was a pressure. It was expected that the Shanghai zinc would be under pressure. [10][11] - For lead, the increase in LME inventory, the rebound of the US dollar, and the lack of demand during the Spring Festival put pressure on the lead price. It was expected that the Shanghai lead would be under pressure and volatile after opening. [12] - For tin, the US tariff policy and the uncertainty of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation added macro - variables. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation and slow recovery of downstream demand were pressures, but the slow recovery of tin ore supply in Myanmar and Indonesia's resource protection policy supported the price. It was expected that the Shanghai tin would fluctuate after the holiday. [13][14] - For steel products, during the holiday, the steel mills maintained production, and the inventory accumulated. The daily inventory accumulation rate of rebar during the Spring Festival was the lowest in the past five years. It was expected that the inventory inflection point would appear in about 4 weeks, and the steel prices would oscillate at a low level in the short term. [15] - For iron ore, during the holiday, the overseas iron ore supply increased, while the demand was weak. It was expected that the iron ore price would oscillate weakly in the short term. [16] - For coking coal and coke, during the Spring Festival, the coking coal market was in a "rest period" with weak supply and demand, and the prices were expected to oscillate in the short term. [17] - For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, during the Spring Festival, the CBOT US soybeans oscillated. The new - season US soybean planting area was expected to increase, and the soybean crushing demand was good. It was expected that the Dalian soybean meal would oscillate in the short term. [18][20] - For palm oil, during the Spring Festival, the BMD Malaysian palm oil and CBOT US soybean oil prices rose. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in mid - and early February, and the export demand decline narrowed slightly. It was expected that the palm oil would stop falling and oscillate in the short term. [21][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The trading data of various metal futures contracts are provided, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, SHFE copper closed at 100380 yuan/ton with no change, LME copper closed at 12901 dollars/ton with a 0.76% decline. [23] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - Copper: The SHFE copper main contract price decreased from 101560 yuan/ton on February 10 to 100380 yuan/ton on February 13. The LME copper price decreased from 13000 dollars/ton to 12901 dollars/ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 6675 tons. [24] - Nickel: The LME nickel 3 - month contract price decreased from 17435 dollars/ton on February 10 to 17285 dollars/ton on February 13. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 431. [24] - Zinc: The LME zinc price decreased from 3378 dollars/ton on February 10 to 3345.5 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 25 tons. [27] - Lead: The LME lead price decreased from 1966.5 dollars/ton on February 10 to 1952 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME lead inventory decreased by 800 tons. [27] - Aluminum: The LME aluminum 3 - month contract price decreased from 3105.5 dollars/ton on February 10 to 3091 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2000 tons. [27] - Alumina: The SHFE alumina main contract price increased from 2808 yuan/ton on February 10 to 2841 yuan/ton on February 13. [27] - Tin: The LME tin price increased from 46740 dollars/ton on February 10 to 47370 dollars/ton on February 13. The LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons. [27] - Precious metals: The COMEX gold price increased by 2.30% to 5247.90 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver price increased by 4.06% to 88.00 dollars/ounce. [23] - Steel products: The SHFE rebar and hot - rolled coil prices remained unchanged. The DCE iron ore price remained unchanged at 746.0 yuan/ton. [23] - Coking coal and coke: The DCE coking coal and coke prices remained unchanged at 1121.0 yuan/ton and 1682.0 yuan/ton respectively. [23] - Agricultural products: The CBOT soybean price decreased by 0.30% to 1150.3 dollars/ton. The DCE soybean meal and CZCE rapeseed meal data were not available. [23]