大越期货纯碱早报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1,191 yuan/ton, a 1.88% increase from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1,150 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase; the main basis was - 41 yuan/ton, a 41.38% increase [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process was - 160.80 yuan/ton, and that in East China's co - production process was - 97 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 83.25% [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash was 77.43 tons, including 41.40 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were plans for new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.4 Soda Ash Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 97.06% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 149,800 tons, and the operating rate was 71.86% [27]. 3.5 Soda Ash Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 1.588 million tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [33]. 3.6 Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: There was less cold repair of downstream float glass, and the output remained stable [3]. - Negative factors: The production load of the second - phase production line of Yuangxing Energy increased, and there was no expectation of new maintenance, so the output was expected to remain at a high level; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, decreased, and the demand for soda ash weakened [5].