格林期货早盘提示：国债-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures generally declined, and the short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trend of the A - share market. Transaction - type investors can conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened mostly higher, fluctuated downward in the morning session, accelerated the decline in the afternoon, and then traded sideways until the close. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 fell 0.47%, the 10 - year T2606 fell 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2606 fell 0.10%, and the 2 - year TS2606 fell 0.06% [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A index opened slightly higher, rose unilaterally in the morning, fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon and then declined slightly, rising 1.05% throughout the day with a trading volume of 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase compared to the previous trading day's 2.22 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - In the open market on Wednesday, the central bank conducted 4095 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 4000 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also conducted 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with 3000 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. There was 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing on Wednesday. The total net investment on the day was 1595 billion yuan [1] - In the money market on Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank market rose slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.38%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.37%. The weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.51%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.55% [1] - In the cash bond market on Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds were mostly higher than the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.39 BP to 1.36%, the 5 - year rose 1.35 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year rose 1.35 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year rose 1.24 BP to 2.26% [1] - Shanghai introduced seven policies covering three aspects: reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing provident fund loans, and improving individual property tax [1] Market Logic - In January 2026, China's social financing scale increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.4 billion yuan compared to the same period of the previous year. The net financing of government bonds in January increased by 976.4 billion yuan, an increase of 283.1 billion yuan year - on - year. In January, the RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 4.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 420 billion yuan [1] - In January, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the decline was narrower than the previous month. China's overall inflation level rebounded moderately in January. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) in January was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index in January was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderately weak economy in January [1] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". The central bank stated that there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote the low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of treasury bond trading in liquidity management, and keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant [1][2] Trading Strategy - Transaction - type investment should conduct band operations [2]