格林期货早盘提示：全球经济-20260226

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak in late 2025 and started to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [3] - The return of the US to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] - Wash's combination of interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction indicates a major shift in the Fed's monetary policy, creating a strong expectation of liquidity contraction for equity assets [3] Summary by Related Information Categories Software Industry - JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon warns that the current high asset prices and blind profit - seeking are reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, and the credit cycle reversal may trigger an unexpected wave of defaults, with the AI - disrupted software industry as a potential hard - hit area [1] - Arini's founder warns that even without a substantial impact from AI, market panic can raise financing costs and trigger large - scale defaults in the software industry, as software companies generally operate with high leverage and rely on private credit for financing [1] - Traders are short - selling ETFs holding a large number of software company loans through record - high put options, with a focus on Invesco's BKLN [1] - OpenAI aims to replace giants like Salesforce and Workday, while Anthropic emphasizes collaboration with existing software, leading to a general rebound in enterprise software stocks [1] Global Economy and Finance - Hedge funds have been net - selling US stocks at the fastest pace since March last year [2] - Bridgewater's Dalio warns that the world is on the verge of a "capital war" due to geopolitical tensions and capital market volatility [2] - The expected balance - sheet reduction policy of the Fed's nominee Wash has a strong negative impact on global equity and commodity assets [2] - Nomura predicts that the Fed's uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - High - end consumer spending remains resilient, but middle - and low - income families are cutting back, and funds are flowing from tech stocks to defensive sectors [2] Technology and Business Cooperation - AMD and Meta have a five - year strategic partnership, with Meta getting 6GW of AMD GPU and AMD offering up to 1.6 billion performance - based warrants (about 10% equity) in exchange for a $100 billion order [1] - Google will build a new data center in Minnesota and cooperate with Xcel Energy to implement innovative energy solutions [1] AI - related Technology Trends - OpenClaw's Steinberger submits 90,000 lines of code in a year with AI, stating that AI can solve problems autonomously, and he predicts a full - scale technological explosion in 2026 [1] US Policy - making and International Relations - The Trump administration plans to use the Pentagon's AI project to set reference prices for key minerals and build a global metal trading group, initially focusing on four metals: germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten [1] - The US has released a new National Security Strategy, giving up global hegemony and adjusting economic relations with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The US has taken actions such as attempting to arrest the Venezuelan president, control Venezuelan oil, and buy Greenland, bringing great uncertainty to the global economy [2]