宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-26-20260226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 is expected to run strongly, showing a slightly stronger trend in the short - term and intraday, and a volatile trend in the medium - term [1][5]. - The synthetic rubber futures contract 2604 is expected to run weakly, showing a volatile and weaker trend intraday and a volatile trend in the medium - term [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - Short - term: Slightly stronger and volatile [1]. - Medium - term: Volatile [1]. - Intraday: Slightly stronger and volatile [1]. - Reference View: Strongly running [1][5]. - Core Logic: During the Spring Festival holiday, the overseas natural rubber market was strong, with rising prices of Japanese rubber and Thai raw materials, forming an explicit external market pull. The Southeast Asian main production areas entered the seasonal low - production stage, and the domestic production areas were in the off - season, leading to a temporary tightening of global supply and strong cost - side support. ANRPC warned of a widening global natural rubber supply - demand gap in 2026, raising expectations of a structural tight balance, which provided fundamental support for rubber prices. The Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 slightly rose on Wednesday night, and it is expected to maintain a strong trend on Thursday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Short - term: Volatile [1]. - Medium - term: Volatile [1]. - Intraday: Slightly weaker and volatile [1]. - Reference View: Weakly running [1][7]. - Core Logic: After the Spring Festival, the high - level fluctuations of domestic synthetic rubber futures increased. The downstream demand side had positive news of resumption of work. Domestic tire factories and rubber product enterprises resumed production, and the operating rate entered the seasonal upward channel. The implementation of the automobile trade - in policy and strong support from tire export orders increased the downstream's willingness to stock up, boosting market confidence. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the synthetic rubber futures contract 2604 maintained a weak downward trend on Wednesday night, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern on Thursday [7].