2026年2月26日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market showed a strong performance recently, with silver leading the gains. The core drivers are three - fold: the change in US tariff policy impacts the US dollar's credit; the tense situation in Iran boosts the safe - haven demand for gold; and the stagflation risk strengthens the anti - inflation property of gold. Short - term tariff rulings and geopolitical conflicts drive the precious metals market, and in the medium - to - long - term, factors like de - dollarization and geopolitical risks will support gold's upward trend. Silver is expected to continue its volatile and strong trend in the short term due to the resonance of its industrial and financial attributes [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 1154.34 and 1151.06 respectively, with increases of 0.52 and 0.56, and increases of 0.05%. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 22786 and 23029 respectively, with increases of 756 and 702, and increases of 3.43% and 3.14% [2] - Positions and Volumes: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 100812 and 155075 respectively, and the trading volumes were 51239 and 198537 respectively. The positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 149845 and 182667 respectively, and the trading volumes were 272487 and 413159 respectively [2] - Spot Premium: The spot premiums of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 9.27 and - 5.99 respectively. The spot premiums of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were - 655 and - 898 respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1145.07, with a decrease of 1.81 and a decrease of 0.16%. The closing price of London Gold was 5164.31, with an increase of 32.30 and an increase of 0.63%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 22131, with an increase of 645 and an increase of 3.00%. The closing price of London Silver was 89.22, with an increase of 2.13 and an increase of 2.45% [2] - Price Differences: The difference between Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 was 3.28, and the difference between Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 was - 243.00. The gold - to - silver ratio (spot) was 51.74. The ratio of Shanghai Gold to London Gold was 1.00, and the ratio of Shanghai Silver to London Silver was 1.12 [2] 3.3 Inventory - Domestic: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold was 105,072 kg (no change), and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver was 355,830 kg, an increase of 5951 kg [2] - Overseas: The inventory of COMEX gold was 33,627,539 troy ounces, a decrease of 73624 troy ounces. The inventory of COMEX silver was 361,844,401 troy ounces, a decrease of 2155763 troy ounces [2] 3.4 Related Derivatives - ETF Holdings: The position of SPDR Gold ETF was 1,098 tons, an increase of 3 tons. The position of SLV Silver ETF was 16,080 tons, a decrease of 28 tons [2] - CFTC Net Positions: The net position of CFTC speculators in gold was 159,915, a decrease of 97. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver was 24,003, an increase of 1048 [2] 3.5 Macro News - US - Iran Relations: US Secretary of State Rubio said that Iran has long posed a serious threat to the US, and Iran is trying to reach a state where it can conduct uranium enrichment. On February 25, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on multiple individuals, entities, and vessels related to Iran [3][4] - Venezuela: The Central Bank of Venezuela sold nearly 6 tons of gold in the second half of last year due to a severe shortage of US dollars caused by US restrictions on its oil exports. After the US Special Forces arrested Venezuelan President Maduro in January, the US allowed some of Venezuela's oil sales revenue to flow back to the country, which revitalized the official foreign exchange market [4] - US Tariff Policy: US Trade Representative Greer said that the tariffs of some countries will be raised to 15% [4]