原木：地产预期回暖，震荡偏强

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report did not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report indicates that the real estate expectation is warming up, and the log market is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side [1]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: - For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 797.5 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 1.1% and a weekly increase of 2.6%. The trading volume was 4795, with a daily increase of 150.7% and a weekly increase of 87%. The open interest was 1439, with a daily decrease of 35.5% and a weekly decrease of 64% [1]. - For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 796 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 0.9% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 5126, with a daily increase of 113.0% and a weekly increase of 258%. The open interest was 7108, with a daily increase of 26.2% and a weekly increase of 42% [1]. - For the 2607 contract, the closing price was 801.5 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 0.9% and a weekly increase of 1%. The trading volume was 168, with a daily increase of 200.0% and a weekly increase of 185%. The open interest was 1195, with a daily increase of 5.7% and a weekly increase of 7% [1]. - Spread Data: - The spread between the spot and 2603 contract was -47.5 on 2026/2/25, with a daily increase of 23.4% and a weekly increase of 76%. The spread between the spot and 2605 contract was -46, with a daily increase of 17.9% and a weekly increase of 23% [1]. - The spreads between different contracts (2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, 2605 - 2607) also changed accordingly [1]. - Spot Market Data: - Most of the log and wood - square spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained stable, with only a few showing slight weekly increases, such as the 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong market with a 1.2% weekly increase, and the 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong market with a 1.3% weekly increase [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, 2026, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Policy in this Municipality", which will be implemented from February 26, 2026 [3]. - On February 24, 2026, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that the two sides of China and the United States are in communication about President Trump's visit to China [3]. - White House officials said that the Trump administration is working on raising the temporary global tariff rate from 10% to 15% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The log trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].