对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强PTA：成本支撑偏强MEG：区间震荡市，多PTA空MEG

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Cost support is strong, and PX is expected to rise after the holiday. Go long on PXN and engage in 5 - 9 calendar spread trading. The PX - naphtha spread has recovered to $327/ton. The PX operating rate remains high, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering. The industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - PTA: Supported by costs, the short - term trend is strong. The PTA futures opened with a catch - up increase on the first day. It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread. The downstream polyester price has increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [1][7]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market. Go long on PTA and short on MEG. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, and it is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March. The price has limited downside but the upside is not yet open, so maintain range - bound operations [1][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Prices: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous day were 7432, 5312, 3747, 6722, and 488.3 respectively, with changes of - 46, - 40, 10, - 68, and - 5, and percentage changes of - 0.62%, - 0.75%, 0.27%, - 1.00%, and - 1.01% [2]. - Calendar Spreads: The closing prices of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 calendar spreads on the previous day were 20, 14, - 118, - 98, and 5 respectively, with changes of - 6, - 18, - 6, - 32, and 5.6 compared to the day before [2]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent on the previous day were $928.67/ton, 5285 yuan/ton, 3658 yuan/ton, $616/ton, and $70.78/barrel respectively, with changes of - 4, 0, 10, 2.5, and - 0.55 [2]. - Spot Processing Margins: The spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil on the previous day were $297.55/ton, 412.68 yuan/ton, 106.87 yuan/ton, 240.63 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.66, - 17.01, 81.21, 40.06, and 0 [2]. 3.2 Market Trends - PX: On February 25, the PX price declined, and the raw material trend was generally weak. The negotiation and transaction level of PX also fell after rising. The spot transaction atmosphere was okay, and the 4 - and 5 - month spot maintained a - 2 C structure. The floating price fluctuated within a narrow range [3]. - Polyester: A 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is being heated up and is planned to restart tomorrow, with products expected around the Lantern Festival. Another 250,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo is planned to start heating up on March 1 and feed on March 4. A large - scale polyester industrial yarn plant in Huzhou is restarting, and a 200,000 - ton polyester plant in Huzhou restarted on February 24. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on February 25 were sluggish, with an average sales rate of about 20% by 3:30 p.m. The sales rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber plants was highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 51% by 3:00 p.m [5][6]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - PX: The supply side has a high operating rate, with the Asian PX operating rate at around 84%. South Korea's PX exports increased significantly in the first 20 days of February. The demand side has a PTA operating rate of around 75%, and the polyester operating rate is gradually recovering [7]. - PTA: It accumulates inventory from January to February and enters a de - stocking pattern from March. The downstream polyester price has increased, and the industry may enter a positive feedback pattern [7]. - MEG: The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains high, with the coal - based plant operating rate reaching 83%. It accumulates inventory during the Spring Festival, and is in a significant inventory accumulation pattern from February to March [8].