申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the Shanghai rubber market trended upwards. Fundamentally, natural rubber is in a seasonally low - production stage. Domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and Thai production areas are also gradually ceasing. The low - production season usually lasts until May. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao, China, continues to accumulate, and the short - term supply elasticity weakens, while the raw rubber price is relatively firm. On the demand side, there is expected support for the resumption of post - holiday operations. The all - steel tire operation is expected to be stable, and rubber prices are expected to remain strong [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume Information: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 17240, 13980, and 13120 respectively, with price changes of 210, 185, and - 40, and percentage changes of 1.23%, 1.34%, and - 0.30%. The trading volumes were 272777, 56602, and 95999, and the open interests were 175091, 45890, and 54835, with changes of 13023, - 1632, and 425 respectively [2] - Spread Information: The current spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR are 3260, 4120, and 860 respectively, with changes of 25, 250, and 225 compared to the previous values [2] - Basis Information: The current RU basis is - 190, the basis of mixed - RU is - 1425, and the basis of smoked sheet - RU is 2060 [2] Spot Market - Domestic Spot: The current prices of whole milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming are 16950, 17050, and 16900 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.05%, 3.06%, and - 0.60%. The current prices of smoked sheet rubber in Shandong and Shanghai are 19300, with a 1.50% increase. The current prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan are 15815 and 16650, with percentage changes of 1.20% and 1.05% [2] - Downstream Spot: The current prices of Thai smoked sheet, Thai cup rubber, and Thai latex are 71.17, 57.87, and 67.3 (in Thai baht per kilogram), with percentage changes of 3.46%, 0.00%, and 0.45% [2]