招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The precious metals market is gradually recovering from previous declines. Gold is recommended to hold long positions, and the long - term outlook remains positive. Silver has increased spot price volatility, so caution is advised [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought on dips. Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term. Alumina prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Lithium carbonate prices may rise significantly. Tin is recommended to be bought on dips [2][3]. - In the black industry, long positions in rebar should be held with caution. Iron ore is recommended to be observed. Long positions in coking coal should be held with caution [4][5]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans are strong, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Edible oils are weak. Cotton is recommended to be bought on dips. Egg and hog futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak [6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE, PP, and styrene are expected to be volatile in the short term. PVC is recommended for a positive spread strategy. PX is recommended for medium - term long - allocation, and PTA should take appropriate profit. Glass is recommended to sell soda ash and buy glass. MEG is recommended to look for short - term long - trading opportunities. Crude oil is recommended to buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 at high prices. Soda ash is recommended to be observed [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - Market Performance: International gold prices rose 0.46% to $5164 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 2.39% to $89.17 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump's State of the Union address mentioned tariffs, etc. The U.S. may impose up to 15% "global import tariffs" on some countries. EU estimates that 4.2 billion euros of goods face new tariffs. Iran's foreign minister is preparing to participate in the third round of indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. Domestic gold ETFs had a small inflow of 1.7 tons. COMEX gold inventory decreased by 2.3 tons to 1045.8 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 67 tons to 11253.4 tons [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious with silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices were volatile and slightly stronger [2]. - Fundamentals: Investors bet on NVIDIA's strong performance, boosting market risk appetite. The supply of copper ore remains tight. After the festival, there is seasonal inventory accumulation [2]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.81% to 23,740 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work, U.S. tariff policies, and overseas production capacity changes [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.45% to 2870 yuan per ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants are in the production - reduction and maintenance stage, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: Prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 152,640 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.15% [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. The production of lithium carbonate decreased in February. The inventory is expected to be in a tight balance in Q1 [3]. - Trading Strategy: Prices may rise significantly due to the suspension of lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe [3]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices rose significantly [3]. - Fundamentals: Investors bet on NVIDIA's strong performance, boosting market risk appetite. The supply of tin ore remains tight [3]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar contract 2605 closed at 3069 yuan per ton, up 39 yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant. The inventory of billets in Tangshan is at a historical high. Steel mills are in continuous losses, and the production increase space is limited [4]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions with caution, and the reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 [4]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore contract 2605 closed at 748 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is neutral. The iron - making water production is basically the same year - on - year. The port iron ore inventory is close to 170 million tons, and the structural contradiction persists [4]. - Trading Strategy: Observe mainly, and the reference range for I05 is 740 - 770 [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal contract 2605 closed at 1113 yuan per ton, up 4.5 yuan [5]. - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits are poor, and the blast furnace production may decrease slightly. The first round of price increase has been implemented, and there is no further plan. The overall inventory level is neutral, and the futures valuation is high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions with caution, and the reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose [6]. - Fundamentals: South America has a high - yield expectation. U.S. soybean crushing is strong, and export expectations are strong. The overall supply - demand of U.S. soybeans is expected to improve, but the global supply - demand is expected to be looser [6]. - Trading Strategy: Trade on China's increased purchase of U.S. soybeans, and pay attention to U.S. soybean exports and South American production [6]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices continued to rise, and spot prices rose slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: The grain - selling progress has exceeded 60%, and the pressure is not large. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of ground - stored grain. Downstream enterprises' inventories are at the same level as the same period, and port inventories are low [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil is weak in the short term [6]. - Fundamentals: The estimated production in Malaysia from February 1 - 20 decreased by 12% month - on - month, and the estimated exports from February 1 - 25 decreased by 12% month - on - month [6]. - Trading Strategy: Trade on the seasonal production - increase expectation, and adopt a reverse - spread strategy [6]. Cotton - Market Performance: ICE U.S. cotton futures prices were volatile and stronger, and international crude oil futures prices were volatile and declined [6]. - Fundamentals: In 2025, the U.S. increased textile and clothing imports from India. The CAI's supply - demand balance sheet for the 25/26 season has no significant adjustments. Domestic cotton prices are boosted by ICE cotton prices [6]. - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips, and the price range is 15200 - 15800 yuan per ton [6]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices were narrowly volatile, and spot prices were mostly stable with a few rising [6]. - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, it is the traditional off - season for egg demand. The overall supply is sufficient, and egg prices are expected to be low [6]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak. Industrial customers are recommended to pay attention to hedging opportunities in far - month contracts [6]. Hogs - Market Performance: Hog futures prices rebounded, and spot prices continued to be weak [7]. - Fundamentals: After the Spring Festival, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The daily average slaughter pressure is large this month [7]. - Trading Strategy: Futures prices are expected to be volatile and weak [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly. The spot price in North China is 6610 yuan per ton, and the basis is weak [8]. - Fundamentals: There is no new device put into production in the first half of the year, and the domestic supply pressure eases. The import window is closed, and the import volume is expected to decrease slightly. The downstream demand is weak, but it will enter the peak season in March and April [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the development of the U.S. - Iran incident [8]. PVC - Market Performance: V05 closed at 4900, down 1% [8]. - Fundamentals: There are real - estate favorable policies, but high inventory suppresses prices. The supply is large, and the downstream factories have not resumed work. The social inventory is at a high level [8]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a positive - spread strategy of buying 09 and selling 01 [8]. PTA - Market Performance: PXCFR China price is $925 per ton, and PTA spot price in East China is 5285 yuan per ton, with a basis of - 63 yuan per ton [8]. - Fundamentals: PX supply is at a high level, and attention should be paid to seasonal maintenance. PTA supply is at a medium level. Polyester factory load is at a seasonal low, and the inventory pressure is not large [8]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - allocation view on PX in the medium term. PTA has seasonal inventory accumulation, and appropriate profit - taking is recommended [8]. Glass - Market Performance: fg05 closed at 1055, down 0.8% [9]. - Fundamentals: Glass is boosted by real - estate policies, but the near - term demand is average. The supply has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. Downstream enterprises' orders are few, and the production is in a loss state [9]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a strategy of selling soda ash and buying glass [9]. PP - Market Performance: The main PP contract fell slightly. The spot price in East China is 6600 yuan per ton, and the basis is weak. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [9]. - Fundamentals: The new device put - into - production in the first half of the year decreases, and the domestic supply pressure increases. The downstream is in the holiday, and the start - up rate is low [9]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the U.S. - Iran incident. In the long - term, it is mainly range - bound, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [9]. MEG - Market Performance: The spot price of MEG in East China is 3670 yuan per ton, with a basis of - 90 yuan per ton [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure eases, and the import supply decreases. The inventory in some ports in East China is at a high level. The polyester load is at a seasonal low [9]. - Trading Strategy: Look for short - term long - trading opportunities [9]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices have been volatile recently, waiting for the result of U.S. - Iran negotiations. The current oil price contains a risk premium of about $10 per barrel [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply of Russian oil may face pressure, and the short - term core influence is the U.S. - Iran geopolitical risk. The demand for heating in the U.S. increased in February but will decline in March [9]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for the high oil price and buy out - of - the - money put options on SC04 [9]. Styrene - Market Performance: The main EB contract fell slightly. The spot price in East China is 7650 yuan per ton, and the trading atmosphere is average. The import window is closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The pure - benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the supply - demand pattern will improve in February and March. The styrene inventory has accumulated during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand is weak in February and March. The downstream start - up rate is low [10]. - Trading Strategy: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the U.S. - Iran incident. In the second quarter, it is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: sa05 closed at 1195, up 2% [10]. - Fundamentals: The bottom price of soda ash is stagnant, and the upstream orders are acceptable. The supply is large, and the inventory accumulation is not much. The downstream demand is stable, and there is a production - reduction expectation for float glass [10]. - Trading Strategy: Observe [10].