PP：C3原料表现偏强，PDH检修仍高：LLDPE：原油成本支撑强，自身供需格局一般

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - LLDPE has strong cost support from crude oil, and its supply - demand pattern is average; PP has strong C3 raw material performance, and PDH maintenance remains high [1][2] - For LLDPE, after - holiday demand for mulch film is expected to improve, and the packaging film industry is expected to recover around the Lantern Festival. For PP, the cost support is strong, but the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE Futures (L2605): The closing price yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 0.63%. The trading volume was 411247, and the position change was 25621. The 05 - contract basis was - 127, and the 05 - 09 - contract spread was - 70 [1] - PP Futures (PP2605): The closing price yesterday was 6720, with a daily decline of 0.39%. The trading volume was 325747, and the position change was 7385. The 05 - contract basis was - 130, and the 05 - 09 - contract spread was - 23 [1] - Spot Prices: For LLDPE, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6650, 6680, and 6800 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6560, 6590, and 6730 yuan/ton respectively [1] Spot News - For polyolefins, Exxon Huizhou had maintenance, and the linear production scheduling decreased slightly. During the festival, the production scheduling of drawn wire was high, and today Zhejiang Petrochemical switched production, leading to a decline in drawn - wire production scheduling [1] - Downstream end - users resumed work relatively late, actual spot transactions declined, and factories were cautious about following price increases, waiting for guidance from US - dollar prices [1] Market Condition Analysis - LLDPE: During the festival, the price of crude oil, the raw material, increased. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is uncertain, the ethylene monomer is stable, and the profit of the PE ethylene process is acceptable. The supply - side contradiction is not significant for now, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2] - PP: The C3 cost support is strong, and PDH maintenance remains high. There is no new production before the 2605 contract. The downstream new orders follow up with rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep - loss PDH profits [2] Trend Intensity - LLDPE trend intensity: - 1; PP trend intensity: 0 [3]