国新国证期货早报-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 25, 2026, A-share market indices rose: the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.72% to 4147.23, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.29% to 14475.87, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.41% to 3354.82. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2481.2 billion, up 262.8 billion from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index remained strong on February 25, closing at 4735.89, up 28.34 [2] - The coke weighted index had a wide - range shock on February 25, closing at 1680.8, up 38.1; the coking coal weighted index had an interval consolidation, closing at 1139.8 yuan, up 25.4 [2][3] - Zhengzhou sugar futures showed an oscillating trend on February 25, with the 2605 contract closing slightly down, and then rising at night due to short - covering. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year [4] - Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on February 25 due to tight raw material supply and increased spot prices. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 610,000 tons to 6.677 million tons, a 10.05% increase [4][5] - CBOT soybean futures rose on February 25. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slow, and its February export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal rose by 1.8% to 2831 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to remain loose [5] - The main contract of live pigs rose by 1.78% to 11465 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [5] - Palm oil futures adjusted and then oscillated upward on February 25. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 25 decreased compared with the same period last month [5] - Shanghai copper futures showed a strong upward trend on February 25. The downstream demand is recovering, the supply is tight, and the inventory is expected to decrease [5] - Iron ore futures rose on February 25. The shipping volume has increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] - Asphalt futures fell on February 25. The supply is seasonally shrinking, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose at night on February 25. The inventory increased, and the yarn price started to rise [6] - Log futures opened at 792 on February 25, with a closing price of 796 and an increase in positions of 1477 hands. The domestic spot market is stable [6][7] - Steel futures rebounded on February 25. The downstream has not fully resumed work, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [7] - Alumina futures closed at 2870 yuan/ton on February 25. The production capacity is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure [7] - Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23835 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is good, the inventory is high, and the demand is gradually recovering [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On February 25, A - share market indices rose, and the trading volume increased [1] - The CSI 300 index remained strong, closing at 4735.89, up 28.34 [2] Coke and Coking Coal - The coke weighted index had a wide - range shock on February 25, closing at 1680.8, up 38.1; the coking coal weighted index had an interval consolidation, closing at 1139.8 yuan, up 25.4 [2][3] - Most coke enterprises maintained normal production during the Spring Festival, with some inventory backlog. The terminal demand was stagnant during the Spring Festival, and steel mills had weak willingness to replenish inventory. For coking coal, state - owned mines have basically resumed production, private mines will gradually resume production, and Mongolian coal ports will resume normal customs clearance after the festival. The market trading was scarce during the holiday [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the stabilization of US sugar, the increase in spot prices, and the off - season of consumption, the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar showed an oscillating trend on February 25, closing slightly down, and then rising at night due to short - covering. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year [4] Rubber - Due to adverse weather in Thailand and Indonesia during the leaf - falling period, the raw material supply tightened, and the spot price increased. Shanghai rubber futures rose slightly on February 25 and at night. As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 610,000 tons to 6.677 million tons, a 10.05% increase [4][5] Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean futures rose on February 25. Brazil's soybean harvest progress is slow, and its February export is expected to be 10.69 million tons. In the domestic market, the main contract of soybean meal rose by 1.8% to 2831 yuan/ton. The supply of soybean meal is expected to remain loose [5] Live Pigs - The main contract of live pigs rose by 1.78% to 11465 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to focus on the culling progress of sows and the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises [5] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures adjusted and then oscillated upward on February 25. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 25 decreased compared with the same period last month [5] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper futures showed a strong upward trend on February 25. The downstream demand is recovering, the supply is tight, and the inventory is expected to decrease [5] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose on February 25. The shipping volume has increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory is at a high level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [5][6] Asphalt - Asphalt futures fell on February 25. The supply is seasonally shrinking, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton futures rose at night on February 25. The inventory increased, and the yarn price started to rise [6] Logs - Log futures opened at 792 on February 25, with a closing price of 796 and an increase in positions of 1477 hands. The domestic spot market is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [6][7] Steel - Steel futures rebounded on February 25. The downstream has not fully resumed work, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in a narrow range [7] Alumina - Alumina futures closed at 2870 yuan/ton on February 25. The production capacity is increasing, the inventory is rising, and the price is under pressure [7] Shanghai Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum futures closed at 23835 yuan/ton on February 25. The supply is good, the inventory is high, and the demand is gradually recovering [7]