光大证券晨会速递-20260226

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - As of the end of January 2026, the total bond custody amount reached 179.31 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 0.76 trillion yuan month-on-month, which is 0.46 trillion yuan more than the end of December 2025 [1] - The custody amounts for interest rate bonds and credit bonds increased, while financial bonds and interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [1] - The overall positioning in the bond market indicates an increase in allocation by trading institutions, while non-legal person products continued to reduce their holdings [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market Insights - In January 2026, the transaction amount for commodity residential properties (excluding affordable housing) in 30 core cities was 185.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.7%, with an average transaction price of 24,285 yuan per square meter, down 4.8% year-on-year [2] - The transaction area for second-hand houses in the core 15 cities increased by 14.3% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a year-on-year price drop of 9.8% [2] - The report emphasizes that as supply-side adjustments continue, leading companies are expected to benefit from improved competitive structures, with recommendations for companies like China Merchants Shekou and China Jinmao [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings saw a slight increase during the Spring Festival period, indicating a stable interest in gold [3] - The steel industry's supply-side adjustments are expected to strengthen in the short to medium term, as losses for listed steel companies approached levels seen in Q3 and Q4 of 2024 [3] - The tightening of steel export policies since the beginning of 2026 poses challenges, as direct and indirect exports were crucial for the steel industry's profitability in 2025, necessitating supportive supply-side policies [3]