2026年02月26日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Although prices have rebounded from the lows in late January, they have not fully recovered the previous declines. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman by Trump is the core disturbance. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the continuation of the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the industry all support the prices of platinum and palladium [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum Futures: For contracts pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 586.00, 579.70, and 576.50 respectively, with price increases of 38.50, 40.40, and 37.70, and rise - fall rates of 7.03%, 7.49%, and 7.00% respectively. The trading volumes are 10895, 290, and 267, and the open interests are all 12796 [1] - Palladium Futures: For contracts pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 457.95, 454.75, and 455.00 respectively, with price increases of 19.70, 19.35, and 21.30, and rise - fall rates of 4.50%, 4.44%, and 4.91% respectively. The trading volumes are 4461, 103, and 47, and the open interests are all 4334 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Platinum Spot: The Shanghai platinum price increased by 38.93 to 584.02, with a rise - fall rate of 0.071%. The London platinum price increased by 185.00 to 2323.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.087%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 869.00 and 960.00 respectively, with a change of 33.00 and 0.00 and rise - fall rates of 0.039% and 0.000% [1] - Palladium Spot: The Chinese palladium price increased by 16.00 to 446.00, with a rise - fall rate of 0.037%. The Russian palladium price decreased by 68.37 to 4245.82, with a rise - fall rate of - 0.016% [1] 3.3 Inventory - Platinum Inventory: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 578,195.22 ounces and 313,567.94 ounces respectively. The trading volume on the Gold Exchange increased by 192.0 kilograms to 258.00 kilograms, and the trading amount increased by 11306.2 ten - thousand yuan to 14,895.82 ten - thousand yuan [1] - Palladium Inventory: The NYMEX inventory and registered warehouse receipts remain unchanged at 186,268.54 ounces and 148,317.64 ounces respectively [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indexes - Related Indexes: The US dollar index decreased by 0.23 to 97.66, the S&P 500 index increased by 56.06 to 6,946.13, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.01 to 4.05, the Nasdaq index increased by 288.40 to 23,152.08, the Dow Jones index increased by 307.65 to 49,482.15, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 6.93 [1] - Related Derivatives: For Shanghai gold contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 0.56, 0.52, and 1.00 respectively. For Shanghai silver contracts 2604, 2606, and 2608, the prices increased by 702, 756, and 819 respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic News - Fed Policy: The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan [2] - Fed Chairman Nomination: Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2] - China's Economic Data: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production expanded, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - Payment Settlement Meeting: The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and improving service quality [3]