能源化策略日报：原油震荡等待局势明朗，化?端本??盾较?横盘整理-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is waiting for the progress of the US - Iran negotiation, and the chemical industry has entered an oscillatory pattern. The supply - demand of the polyester chain is relatively healthy, while polyolefins, especially PE, still face significant supply pressure. Pure benzene - styrene and chlor - alkali are mainly in an oscillatory state. Due to spring maintenance from March to May, polyester raw materials are destocking. The weakness of olefins is mainly due to the high global production capacity growth rate. The cost fluctuations and small supply - demand contradictions in the chemical industry make it difficult to have a trending market, and investors are advised to conduct short - term or hedging operations [2]. - The crude oil market continues to have high volatility, and chemical prices will continue to oscillate and consolidate. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: US crude oil accumulates inventory on a weekly basis, and the US - Iran geopolitical situation continues to cause disturbances. The market is waiting for the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The supply - demand is in an oversupply situation in the short - term, and it is expected to oscillate [9]. - Main Logic: The US crude oil inventory increased significantly last week, and gasoline inventory decreased. The refinery operating rate declined, which is consistent with the previous API data. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The current geopolitical premium is fermenting, and the signal for the end of the rebound depends on the falsification of Iranian supply concerns or the confirmation of OPEC+'s production increase [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - Viewpoint: The market is waiting for the result of the US - Iran negotiation. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the medium - long - term valuation is expected to decline, showing an oscillatory trend [10][11]. - Main Logic: With the relaxation of US sanctions on Venezuela and the increase in light distillate exports, the long - term supply of asphalt raw materials is abundant. The market focuses on the US - Iran negotiation, and the asphalt cracking spread has significantly declined. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply - demand of asphalt is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The current asphalt futures price is at a relatively high valuation compared to other products [11]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: The fuel oil futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium, and it is expected to oscillate. The increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and the short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. - Main Logic: The market is highly concerned about the progress of the US - Iran negotiation. The increase in Venezuelan heavy oil supply is expected to put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The current high - sulfur fuel oil has a geopolitical premium. If the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the long - term, the demand for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is gradually being replaced [11]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Although it is affected by factors such as the replacement of green fuels and high - sulfur fuel oil, its current valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate [13]. - Main Logic: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. The decrease in fuel oil exports from Brazil, Kuwait, and Nigeria in February has alleviated the oversupply expectation. It has strong main - product attributes. Although it faces some negative factors, its low valuation makes it likely to follow the change of crude oil [13]. 3.1.5 PX - Viewpoint: The cost still has support, and the price is in high - level consolidation. In the short - term, it oscillates under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. In the medium - term, the logic of buying at low prices remains, and the PX05 - 09 spread can be positively arbitraged at low prices. The PXN is expected to be consolidated within the range of [300, 330] US dollars per ton [15]. - Main Logic: International oil prices are in high - level consolidation, and there is still some support for chemical products. After the holiday, the PX price increased significantly on the first trading day and then slightly declined. The overall supply - demand has not changed much. With the impact of the maintenance season, the supply pressure is expected to be relieved [15]. 3.1.6 PTA - Viewpoint: Supported by cost and affected by tariff policies, it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of the polyester industry. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the support for the TA05 - 09 spread is enhanced. It is advisable to pay attention to the positive arbitrage position, and the support around 5250 yuan per ton is relatively strong [16][17]. - Main Logic: The cost support is significant, and the price has回调. During the Spring Festival, the inventory accumulated significantly, but the wharf inventory pressure is general, and the basis decline pressure is controllable. The tariff policy has caused concerns about rush - exports, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of the polyester and terminal industries [17]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: It is affected by crude oil and commodity sentiment and oscillates. The fundamentals in Q1 are improved compared to Q4, but the inventory pressure is still large [18][19]. - Main Logic: Before the holiday, the downstream replenishment of pure benzene basically ended, and the trading became weak. After the holiday, it rose to make up for the gap. The fundamentals are in a transition period, and there are differences in the market's judgment of the Q2 fundamentals. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory accumulation during the holiday and the resumption of downstream production after the holiday [19]. 3.1.8 Styrene - Viewpoint: Affected by seasonal inventory accumulation and crude oil fluctuations, it oscillates. Although the height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February is adjusted, the improvement of the overseas situation weakens the support [20]. - Main Logic: Before the holiday, the styrene price declined due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the restart of domestic and overseas devices. After the holiday, it rose to make up for the gap. It is necessary to pay attention to the inventory accumulation during the holiday, the restart of some devices, and the resumption of downstream production [20]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Viewpoint: The supply - demand pressure limits the price rebound. In the medium - term, it has a weak recovery, and the lower support is enhanced. It is expected to be in the range of [3700 - 4050] yuan per ton in the short - term [22][23]. - Main Logic: The international oil price increased significantly during the Spring Festival, providing some cost support, but the supply - demand is weak. Although the inventory accumulation is less than expected due to the delay of some ships, the port inventory is still at a high level. After March, the supply - demand pattern will improve, and the import volume will decrease, enhancing the price support [23]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: The downstream starts slowly, and the raw material end oscillates. The short - fiber price follows the upstream and oscillates in the short - term, and the support for the processing fee is enhanced [25]. - Main Logic: The upstream polyester raw material prices are in high - level consolidation, providing cost support. The cancellation of US tariffs is beneficial to the export of terminal textile and clothing. The downstream starts slowly, and the raw material end oscillates [25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle - Chip - Viewpoint: The cost end still has support. The absolute price follows the raw material fluctuation, and the support for the processing fee is enhanced. It is advisable to temporarily exit the position of buying PR and shorting TA [26]. - Main Logic: The upstream raw material futures oscillate and decline, and the polyester bottle - chip price follows the weak oscillation. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market has recovered, and it is expected to continue to follow the raw material cost fluctuation [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - Viewpoint: Overseas geopolitical disturbances continue, and it oscillates widely. It is expected to oscillate, and the Iranian situation is uncertain before it is settled [28][29]. - Main Logic: On February 25, 2026, methanol oscillated weakly. The inventory in the coastal market is high, and the Iranian methanol devices are expected to resume production in March, which has a negative impact on the market. However, geopolitical disturbances still need to be followed [29]. 3.1.13 Urea - Viewpoint: Supported by demand and guided by policies, it oscillates and consolidates. It is expected to oscillate narrowly, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream purchasing performance, the order digestion of production enterprises, and the storage - releasing plan of storage enterprises [30][31]. - Main Logic: On February 25, 2026, urea oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand increased simultaneously. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season. However, the spot price has reached the upper limit of the price guidance, and the market trading atmosphere is suppressed [30][31]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - Viewpoint: The downstream gradually resumes production after the holiday, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - Main Logic: On February 24, the plastic futures opened higher and strengthened. The oil price oscillates due to the tense US - Iran geopolitical relationship. The commodity sentiment has improved after the holiday, and the capital has an impact on plastic. The mid - stream inventory pressure of plastic is not large, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support [35]. 3.1.15 PP - Viewpoint: The spot support is limited, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [36]. - Main Logic: On February 24, PP futures oscillated higher. The oil price oscillates and rises due to the tense US - Iran geopolitical relationship. The commodity market sentiment has improved, which indirectly affects PP. The PDH profit of PP refineries is still under pressure, providing support for the price. The downstream of PP is in the off - peak to peak season transition, and the resumption progress needs to be observed. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support [36]. 3.1.16 PL - Viewpoint: The powder profit is still under pressure, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [37]. - Main Logic: On February 25, PL futures oscillated. After the holiday, the PDH maintenance devices gradually resumed, and the market mainly followed the crude oil rebound. Enterprises mainly maintained stable prices, and the downstream factories followed up as needed. The short - term powder profit is weak, and the downstream factories are expected to resume production around the Lantern Festival [37]. 3.1.17 PVC - Viewpoint: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and it may oscillate. It is expected to oscillate, and the geopolitical disturbances and maintenance expectations support the market sentiment, but the high inventory still suppresses the price [39]. - Main Logic: Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. After the holiday, the upstream of PVC will carry out spring maintenance, but the "rush - export" will cool down, and the high inventory is difficult to destock smoothly. The upstream profit is poor, the downstream start - up is at a low level, the export order is weakening, and the cost is slightly decreasing [39]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it oscillates. It is expected to oscillate, and the high inventory suppresses the price, but the maintenance and downstream replenishment provide support [40][41]. - Main Logic: Geopolitical factors affect the commodity market sentiment. The upstream is in a loss state, and the maintenance expectation is strong. The downstream may replenish inventory at a low price, and the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved. The fundamentals are affected by factors such as alumina production reduction, demand support from new alumina projects, and the decline in caustic soda production [41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [42]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: The basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided [43]. - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific content for analysis is provided in the report for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and plate index (energy index) are provided, including the latest values, change percentages, and historical price change data [282][284].