宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-26-20260226

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and intraday showing a slight downward trend. The core logic is that the weakening of geopolitical risks, combined with the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, will cause the price of crude oil futures to be under pressure [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Analysis - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2604 is oscillatory and slightly weak [1]. 3.2 Price and Driving Factors - After the Spring Festival, the domestic crude oil futures 2604 contract rose significantly, driven by geopolitical risk premium, tight supply - demand balance, and domestic resumption of work demand. The repeated situation in the Middle East is the core variable of oil price fluctuations. During the Spring Festival, the limited progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation, the US troop increase in the Middle East, and Iran's military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz intensified market concerns about supply interruption. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's seaborne crude oil passes, may push up the risk premium of oil prices if the situation escalates [5]. - As short - term geopolitical risk factors gradually weaken, and affected by the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventories announced by EIA, the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures were slightly pressured in the night session on Wednesday. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillatory and slightly weak trend on Thursday [5].