烧碱：近月交割压力大，但成本仍有支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The caustic soda market has high inventory after the Spring Festival, with limited short - term sharp rise space. The market will first trade the delivery pressure and then consider future production cut expectations and improvement in downstream demand. There is cost support for caustic soda due to continuous subsidies for liquid chlorine, and the supply is expected to see large - scale production cuts, but inventory and near - month delivery pressure need to be focused on after the festival [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 05 contract futures price of caustic soda is 2167, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 640, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2000, and the basis is - 167 [1] - During the Spring Festival, affected by the difficult shipment of liquid chlorine, some enterprises in Shandong had low operating loads. The inventory of caustic soda plants was better than expected before the festival, and some low - inventory enterprises raised prices. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in different regions of Shandong varied: 590 - 650 in southwestern Shandong, 590 - 635 in central and eastern Shandong, 600 - 630 in northern Shandong, and 660 - 670 in southern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 990 - 1100 [1] Market Condition Analysis - During the Spring Festival, liquid chlorine remained weak, and the price of Shandong liquid chlorine was subsidized, which supported the caustic soda price. With high inventory after the Spring Festival, the short - term sharp rise space of caustic soda is limited. There are 895 lots of caustic soda warehouse receipts, and the delivery pressure is still large [2] - The supply - demand structure of alumina is gradually reversing with production cuts. Attention should be paid to the incremental demand brought by large - scale production capacity commissioning in the later stage. The non - aluminum downstream is in the seasonal off - season, but the rigid demand will continue to pick up in March, and exports remain strong as the US price is high and Europe turns to Asia to purchase caustic soda [2] - The Shandong spot price is close to the cash - flow cost, and the expectation of production cuts and load reduction after March is increasing [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]