所长早读-20260226
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-02-26 02:02
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Real Estate Policy Impact: The "Shanghai Seven Measures" in the real estate market significantly reduce the home - purchase threshold for non - Shanghai residents, support multi - child families and improvement - oriented demand, which is expected to activate the improvement - oriented demand and promote the market to return to a stable and healthy state [7][8]. - Commodity Market Trends: Different commodities have different trends. For example, black commodities may have a medium - term rebound due to the warming real - estate expectations; tin prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term; LPG is short - term strong but has callback risks [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is recommended to focus on the post - holiday gap - up [15]. - Platinum and Palladium: The market for platinum may be boosted by news, and palladium follows a relatively strong trend [15][42]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: With improved sentiment, copper prices have rebounded. The supply was in surplus in December 2025, and some mining projects have expansion plans [23][25]. - Zinc: Zinc is in an interval oscillation [26]. - Lead: The increase in lead inventory restricts the price recovery [29]. - Tin: Tin is in a strong - oscillating state. The short - term rise is due to tight spot supply and capital inflow, and the medium - term supply support remains [10][32]. - Aluminum and Related Products: Aluminum is running strongly, alumina is slightly rebounding, and cast aluminum alloy is oscillating strongly [39]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: There is still speculative sentiment in Shanghai nickel, and continuous attention should be paid to the contradiction in nickel ore. For stainless steel, the cost support center moves up, but the off - season inventory accumulation restricts its elasticity [46]. 3.2 Energy and Minerals - Iron Ore: Due to the warming real - estate expectations, iron ore prices have rebounded [60]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both coke and coking coal are in wide - range oscillations [70]. - Power Coal: The upstream quotes of power coal are firm, and the short - term coal price is relatively strong [76]. - LPG: Supply tightening has led to a night - session surge, but there are also callback risks [11][126]. 3.3 Chemicals - PX, PTA, and MEG: PX and PTA are strongly supported by costs. MEG is in an interval - oscillation market, and a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG is recommended [81]. - Rubber: Rubber is in a strong - oscillating state, and most tire enterprises have resumed work as planned after the Spring Festival [89]. - Synthetic Rubber: Synthetic rubber is oscillating downward. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has increased significantly after the Spring Festival [92]. - LLDPE and PP: LLDPE has strong cost support from crude oil, and its own supply - demand pattern is average. For PP, the C3 raw material is relatively strong, and the PDH maintenance rate remains high [95]. - Caustic Soda: Caustic soda has large near - month delivery pressure but also cost support [97]. - Methanol: Methanol is in an oscillating state, and the upper and lower price limits are relatively limited [110]. - Urea: Urea is in a short - term oscillating state [116]. - Styrene: Styrene is in a strong - oscillating state. The short - term accumulation during the Spring Festival is lower than in previous years, and there is support from export expectations [119]. - Soda Ash: The spot market for soda ash has little change, and the market is in a weak - stable adjustment [122]. - Propylene: The supply - demand of propylene remains tight, and the spot price is in a sideways consolidation [127]. - PVC: PVC is in an interval - oscillation state. The high - production and high - inventory structure has not changed, but there may be unexpected production cuts in the supply side in 2026 [135]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm oil production reduction is realized, and a short - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. Soybean oil is mainly in an interval - oscillation state affected by spot sentiment [166]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean: The US trade remarks affect the soybean meal's price fluctuations, and the soybean price may adjust and oscillate due to the easing of Sino - US trade sentiment [173]. - Corn: Corn is in a strong - oscillating state [176]. - Sugar: The sentiment of sugar price increase is spreading. Different regions have different sugar production and consumption situations [180]. - Cotton: Cotton continues to be strong. The spot trading is light, and the cotton yarn market is gradually recovering [185]. - Eggs: Eggs are in a weak - oscillating state [190]. - Hogs: The hog futures market has pre - traded inventory accumulation, and it is difficult to reduce inventory in the off - season [193]. - Peanuts: Peanuts are in an oscillating state [198]. 3.5 Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): An oscillating approach is recommended. The supply and demand in March - April are in a weak - balance state, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts and tariff policies needs to be considered [139].