橡胶：震荡偏强20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the rubber industry is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of rubber is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the rubber main contract (05 contract) increased both during the day and at night. The trading volume, open interest increased, while the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged. The day - closing price was 17,240 yuan/ton (up 210 yuan from the previous day), the night - closing price was 17,315 yuan/ton (up 135 yuan), the trading volume was 272,777 lots (up 26,815 lots), the open interest was 175,091 lots (up 13,023 lots), the net short position of the top 20 members was 22,664 lots (down 2,021 lots), and the warehouse receipt quantity was 112,570 tons [1] - Spread Data: The spot - futures spread increased by 40, the mixed - futures spread decreased by 60, and the RU05 - RU09 spread decreased by 70 [1] - Spot Market: Most of the external quotes of rubber increased. RSS3 increased by 40 dollars/ton to 2,440 dollars/ton, STR20 increased by 20 dollars/ton to 2,100 dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 20 dollars/ton to 2,090 dollars/ton, SIR20 increased by 40 dollars/ton to 2,020 dollars/ton. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,150 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market also increased, with the price of Thai standard and Thai mixed increasing by 65 dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 increasing by 85 dollars/ton [1] Industry News - After the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises resumed work as planned. For semi - steel tire enterprises, some did not stop production during the festival, and most resumed work from the fifth to the seventh day of the first lunar month. For all - steel tire enterprises, over 90% resumed work as planned, mainly from the fifth to the eighth day of the first lunar month, with a few enterprises delaying by 2 - 3 days. Currently, some enterprises are still affected by labor shortages, which restricts the increase in overall production [2][3] - In February, the order performance of semi - steel tire enterprises was better than that of all - steel tire enterprises. Some enterprises received more orders than expected, and the concentrated stocking in the domestic market after the festival supported the rapid recovery of production. Most agents returned to the market from the sixth to the eighth day of the first lunar month, and the order volume was better than the same period last year. As the market recovers, trading will gradually improve [3]