格林大华期货早盘提示：贵金属-20260226

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The latest released US economic data is divergent. The economic growth in Q4 of last year was lower than expected, but inflation exceeded expectations, intensifying policy uncertainty and market concerns about the US economy falling into stagflation. The ambiguity of US trade policy weakens investors' confidence in US assets and increases global market volatility risks. Geopolitical tensions in Iran persist. COMEX gold and COMEX silver both rose and then fell on Wednesday. Investors are advised to control positions and prevent risks due to the uncertainty of the new round of US - Iran negotiations [1][2] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures rose 0.14% to $5183.70 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 1.95% to $89.21 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.65% to 1153.9 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 4% to 23365 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of February 25, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 3.43 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1097.62 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 28.18 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 16079.74 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 98.0%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 15.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 83.8%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.3%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 39.5% [1] - CME suspended trading of metal and natural gas futures and options due to a "technical problem" [1] - US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will issue an announcement on a 15% tariff [1] - In the latest situation in Iran, the US government set restrictions on the new Iran nuclear agreement: no expiration clause. Trump said that the first choice is to resolve the Iran nuclear issue through diplomatic means. Iranian Foreign Minister arrived in Geneva and is ready to hold the third - round indirect talks with US representatives on the 26th [1] Market Logic - The US Customs stopped collecting the tariff ruled illegal by the Supreme Court from February 24. Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on February 24. On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Greer said that the US will issue an announcement on a 15% tariff [1] - The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 in the US was 1.4%, and the government shutdown dragged down the GDP by about 1 percentage point, far lower than the expected 3.0%. The year - on - year increase of the core PCE price index in December in the US was 3.0%, higher than the expected 2.9%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4%, indicating that inflation pressure still exists [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the uncertainty of the new round of US - Iran negotiations, investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]