格林期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260226

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On February 25, after the holiday, commodities had a collective positive start, with the vegetable oil sector gap - opening higher and moving up. The external environment and domestic fundamentals of oils and meals are complex, with both positive and negative factors co - existing, and policy factors have a significant impact on market trends [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Performance - On February 25, the soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts all showed varying degrees of increase and position increase. For example, the soybean oil main contract Y2605 closed at 8228 yuan/ton, up 1.08% day - on - day, and the position increased by 33,881 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - US NYMEX crude oil futures were basically flat, and the market was still worried about the threat to oil supply from the potential military conflict between the US and Iran - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% - The US government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons - From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 8.9% compared with the same period in January, but exports to China increased significantly - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026 - From February 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 22.24% month - on - month - As of the 7th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 1.44% week - on - week and 6.56% year - on - year [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to the US - Iran dispute and positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export expectations and the domestic biodiesel policy, US soybean oil is strong. Malaysian palm oil is affected by both international crude oil and US soybean oil, but its own export data is poor, and the upcoming seasonal production recovery will drag down its upward trend - Domestically, after the end of traders' restocking, the traditional off - season of demand arrives. If reserve soybeans are not auctioned, soybean oil inventory will continue to decline; if a large number of reserve soybeans are auctioned, the supply of soybean oil will be sufficient and the basis will be under pressure. Palm oil follows the trend of overseas vegetable oils. For rapeseed oil, the uncertainty of US biodiesel and tariff policies, the increase in Australian rapeseed supply, and the on - the - way purchase of Canadian rapeseed will ease the tight supply situation, limiting its increase [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, continue to hold existing long positions in oils, and buy a small number of long positions on dips. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [2] 3.2 Double Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Performance - On February 25, due to the market rumor that the customs would continue to tighten the clearance time of Brazilian beans, the double meal futures rose sharply. The main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2831 yuan/ton, up 1.80% day - on - day, and the position increased by 128,000 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - As of February 21, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 32.3%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year and the five - year average - ANEC lowered the February soybean export forecast by 800,000 tons to 10.69 million tons, still 9.9% higher than the same period last year - There are unconfirmed reports that China is seeking soybean offers from the US Pacific Northwest - The market rumors that the customs in South and East China will extend the inspection time by 5 days - As of the 8th weekend of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased slightly, and the contract volume increased significantly. The imported rapeseed inventory increased, and the rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume remained unchanged [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the improvement of the US soybean trade outlook and the upcoming clarity of the US biodiesel policy support the US soybean futures price. The slow soybean harvest progress in Brazil and the suspension of some port operations postpone the export pressure - Domestically, the market rumor of extended customs inspection time may be a prelude to the resumption of imported soybean auctions. Affected by the incomplete resumption of domestic oil mills and inconvenient logistics, the spot market trading is average, but the futures rally boosts the sentiment of some traders. For rapeseed meal, the supply will gradually increase as Australian rapeseed arrives and is pressed, and the current rise is mainly driven by the customs policy and the rise of soybean meal [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - All newly - entered short positions in double meal should be closed, and do not chase long positions for now. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [3]