招银国际每日投资策略-20260226

Company Analysis - Yancoal Australia (3668 HK) is expected to see a 64% decline in net profit to AUD 440 million in 2025, which is 15% lower than market expectations but 20% higher than internal forecasts due to high sensitivity to profit per unit assumptions [2] - The company announced a final dividend of AUD 0.122 per share, along with an interim dividend of AUD 0.062 per share, resulting in a total payout ratio of 55%, in line with its dividend policy [2] - For 2026, Yancoal's equity sales volume is projected to grow by 3%, but unit cash costs are expected to rise by approximately 1% due to ongoing raw material cost inflation [2] - Coal price expectations for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 8% and 7% respectively, reflecting signs of stabilization in shipping coal prices [2] - The target price for Yancoal has been increased from HKD 31 to HKD 38, based on an updated long-term thermal coal price assumption of AUD 140 per ton [2] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,766, up 0.66% for the day and 4.43% year-to-date [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.72% to close at 4,147, with a year-to-date increase of 4.49% [3] - The US stock market saw all major indices rebound, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.26% [5] - European markets continued their upward trend, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.69% to reach a historical high [5] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar approached 6.85, marking a nearly three-year high [5] Industry Insights - The AI server business is expected to experience rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 95% from FY25 to FY27, leading to AI-related revenue constituting 18% of total revenue by FY27 [6] - The company anticipates a recovery in gross and net profit margins in Q4 FY25, with gross margin expected to return to 20.2% and net margin to 5.0% [6] - The target price for Hongteng Precision has been raised to HKD 7.33, based on a 21x FY26E price-to-earnings ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]