碳酸锂：津巴布韦禁令发酵助推盘面强势运行，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Supply and demand have returned to a tight balance, and prices are expected to run strongly within a certain range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market - Yesterday, the price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract closed at 166,480 yuan/ton, with increased trading volume and open interest, and the long - short ratio decreased month - on - month. Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 330 lots to 38,525 lots. The average price of SMM electric carbon was 161,750 yuan/ton, with an electric - industrial price difference of 3,500 yuan/ton. Downstream demand was for replenishment, while upstream suppliers were reluctant to sell and held up prices, resulting in light trading [2]. - After the market yesterday, Zimbabwe suspended lithium exports (with an annual production capacity of about 220,000 tons), increasing supply concerns. The current tight supply - demand situation and low inventory in China, along with emotional disturbances, boosted the futures price [2]. 3.2 Raw Material Fundamentals - Supply side: Before the festival, the price of spodumene concentrate (CIF) rose slightly, while that of mica decreased slightly. The SMM weekly operating rate was 46.02% (-1.27%), and the operating rates of all processes except lithium mica decreased. The SMM weekly total output was 20,184 tons (-560 tons), indicating a slight contraction in supply [3]. - Demand side: There was a differentiation in demand. Lithium iron phosphate production increased and inventory decreased, while ternary production and inventory both decreased. As of February 8, the penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales in SMM dropped to 36.3%, at a relatively low level. In January, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%; sales were 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. Energy - storage cells had strong production and sales and low inventory, being a structural highlight [3]. - Inventory side: Before the festival, the SMM four - location sample social inventory increased by 3,160 tons to 46,210 tons. The sample weekly total inventory decreased to 102,932 tons, and the total inventory days decreased to 29.6 days, returning to a tight - balance pattern [3]. 3.3 Macro - policy and International Environment - Macro - policy: On the demand side, subsidies for trading in old cars for new ones and export tax rebates for batteries directly stimulate terminal consumption and improve macro - liquidity. On the supply side, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a management method for the comprehensive utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries in January, raising recycling thresholds and eliminating backward production capacity, which will optimize domestic supply in the long term and raise the cost - support center. Industrial planning, including the development of Qinghai salt lakes, the focus of energy - storage in the 15th Five - Year Plan, and a series of deployments in the Central Economic Work Conference, work together to support long - term supply - demand balance. The central bank's structural interest - rate cuts strengthen the long - term positive atmosphere [4]. - International environment: On February 20, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and the White House imposed a 15% temporary tariff. The tariff on energy - storage cells decreased from 48.4% to 43.4%, improving export profit margins and benefiting demand during the window period [4].