期货市场交易指引2026年02月26日-20260226

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is expected to be weakly volatile [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to buy on dips; aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][9][10][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda is expected to trade at a low level; soda ash is recommended to short on rallies; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][15][17][18]. - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile; red dates are expected to move sideways [1][23][24][25]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are advised to be cautious about shorting in the 05 contract and short on rallies; eggs are recommended to short on rallies in the near - month contract if the culling does not accelerate; corn is for range trading; soybean meal is recommended to short on rallies; oils are advised to buy on dips [1][25][27][28]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different industries, taking into account factors such as policy changes, inventory levels, and production capacity [1]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Short - term may move sideways, and may be strongly volatile before the Two Sessions. Pay attention to market sentiment towards the Two Sessions. Medium - to long - term is bullish, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - Treasury Bonds: May move sideways, pay attention to supply pressure [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is generally weak and stable. Short - term trading is recommended [7]. - Rebar: On Wednesday, the rebar futures price rebounded. It is expected to move sideways under the background of low valuation and weak driving force. Pay attention to the post - festival demand recovery progress [7]. - Glass: Supply has decreased, inventory has accumulated, and demand will be weak in the short term. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and the post - festival volatility will increase [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply - demand relationship is tight, and there is still support. After a rapid release of risks, it may stabilize. Pay attention to the post - festival inventory inflection point and macro - sentiment calming [9]. - Aluminum: The supply expectation has improved, but the bullish sentiment in the non - ferrous market remains. Strengthen observation [10]. - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, the ore end has strong support. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [12]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is in rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to trade in a range [12]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by factors such as Trump's tariff increase and the Fed's policy, the medium - term price operation center has moved up. Range trading is recommended [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply may increase, and it is expected to continue to trade in a range. Pay attention to the disturbance at the Yichun ore end [15]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply - demand situation is still weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to policies, export, inventory, and raw material prices [15]. - Caustic Soda: The demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. It is expected to trade at a low level. Pay attention to supply - side maintenance and downstream replenishment [17]. - Styrene: It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but the supply pressure will increase in March. Pay attention to raw material prices and downstream demand [18]. - Rubber: The cost support is enhanced, and the demand is expected to be boosted. It is expected to trade in a range. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rates [19]. - Urea: The supply has increased, and the demand is supported. It is expected to move sideways [20]. - Methanol: The supply has decreased, and the demand is weak. The inland market is relatively weak [20]. - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to downstream demand, inventory, and geopolitical situations [21]. - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be high, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [22]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The consumption expectation has recovered after the festival, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [23]. - Apples: The sales in the producing and selling areas are normal. It is expected to be strongly volatile [24]. - Red Dates: The acquisition price in the producing area is based on quality. It is expected to move sideways [25]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: In the short term, the price is weakly adjusted. In the medium - to long - term, the supply will gradually tighten. The 05 contract is advised to short on rallies [25]. - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is seasonally weak. If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies in the near - month contract [27]. - Corn: In the short term, the price is expected to move in a range. In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Range trading is recommended [28]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [29]. - Oils: In the short term, there is support below, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [29].