螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，震荡反复，热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，震荡反复

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are subject to macro sentiment disturbances and are oscillating repeatedly [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of RB2605 was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (1.72%); HC2605 was 3,236 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (1.19%). The trading volume of RB2605 was 1,150,036 lots, with a position of 1,988,709 lots, a decrease of 45,800 lots; HC2605 had a trading volume of 523,081 lots, a position of 1,501,203 lots, an increase of 323 lots [1]. - Spot Price: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou remained unchanged; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged [1]. - Basis and Spread: The basis of RB2605 decreased by 49 yuan/ton, and that of HC2605 decreased by 11 yuan/ton; the spreads of RB2605 - RB2610 and HC2605 - HC2610 both increased by 8 yuan/ton; the spreads of HC2605 - RB2605 and HC2610 - RB2610 both decreased by 8 yuan/ton; the spot coil - rebar spread increased by 30 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 25, five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, including reducing housing purchase restrictions, optimizing housing provident fund loan policies, and improving personal housing property tax policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [2]. - On February 19, steel output: rebar increased by 1.22 million tons, hot - rolled coil by 2.05 million tons, and the total of five major varieties by 10.69 million tons; total inventory: rebar increased by 129.22 million tons, hot - rolled coil by 69.08 million tons, and the total of five major varieties by 269.11 million tons; apparent demand: rebar decreased by 60.75 million tons, hot - rolled coil by 49.46 million tons, a total decrease of 153.44 million tons [3]. - In late January 2026, the average daily output of key steel enterprises: crude steel was 193.5 million tons, a 2.2% decrease; pig iron was 174.1 million tons, a 3.0% decrease; steel was 193.6 million tons, a 3.2% increase [3]. - In late January 2026, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 1471 million tons, a decrease of 142 million tons (8.8%) from the previous ten - day period, an increase of 57 million tons (4.0%) from the beginning of the year, an increase of 57 million tons (4.0%) from the same ten - day period of the previous month, a decrease of 64 million tons (4.2%) from the same ten - day period of last year, and an increase of 251 million tons (20.6%) from the same ten - day period of the year before last [3]. - In December, the output of medium and heavy plate mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - continuous rolling mills and cold - continuous rolling mills decreased year - on - year. Among major plate products, the output of shipbuilding plates, home appliance plates, and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year - on - year; the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year - on - year. Except for medium and heavy wide steel strips, the prices of other products decreased [3]. - BHP Billiton's first - half iron ore output reached a record high, and it accepted a partial reduction in iron ore prices in the annual contract negotiation with China [3]. - In December 2025, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, a 4.2% increase from the previous month; the average price was 1810.3 US dollars/ton, an 11.0% increase from the previous month. From January to December, the cumulative import of steel was 605.9 million tons, a decrease of 75.6 million tons (11.1%) year - on - year [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs implemented export license management for some steel products [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].