生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar: The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved but not reversed. The domestic sugar supply is relatively sufficient, which suppresses the sugar price in the short - term. The Zhengzhou sugar futures may continue to bottom - build and fluctuate. [3] - Pulp: The price increase of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp and the strengthening of energy prices are positive for pulp futures, but the improvement of the supply - demand situation of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited, and the upside is still cautious. [4] - Double - offset Paper: The cost support weakens, and the spot price is relatively stable. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with the basis. [5][6] - Cotton: The cotton price has a mid - term upward trend due to the contraction of domestic planting area and the tightening of supply at the end of the year. However, the short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the futures price is expected to be bullish and volatile. [7] - Fresh Fruit Sector - Apple: The overall futures price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. The supply tightening provides support. [8] - Jujube: The futures price is in a narrow - range shock. The spot inventory is seasonally peaking and falling, and the contradiction between futures and spot prices is alleviated. [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The supply - side support remains, but the continuous driving force is slightly insufficient. The support range is 9000 - 9200, and the pressure range is 11000 - 11500. [17] - Jujube 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term. The expectation of production reduction may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline. The support range is 8700 - 9000, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800. [17] - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2605: Wait and see for the time being. The situation of sugar supply surplus at home and abroad is expected to improve, and Zhengzhou sugar is bottom - building at a low level. The support range is 5100 - 5150, and the pressure range is 5330 - 5350. [17] - Pulp 2605: Short on rallies. The increase in the external price of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper remains to be verified, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited. The support range is 5130 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5350 - 5400. [17] - Double - offset Paper 2605: Operate within the range. The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. Pay attention to the support situation after the futures price further declines and the basis widens. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4250 - 4300. [17] - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously. The long - term bullish expectation remains, the mid - term support is unchanged, but the upward trend of the external price has not been confirmed, and the domestic - foreign price difference restricts the domestic price. The futures price may continue to be bullish and volatile in the short - term. The support range is 14000 - 14200, and the pressure range is 15800 - 16000. [17] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of February 12, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 531,510 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 320,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 574,000 tons. [18] - Spot Market Situation: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong and Shaanxi is stable. The market in the sales area is generally stable. [18][19][20] - Jujube Market: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,888 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.84%. [21] - Sugar Market: Brazil's central - southern region is expected to produce 40.5 million tons of sugar in the 2026/27 season, the same as the previous year. India's sugar production is expected to be 33 million tons, and the domestic supply is still abundant. Thailand's sugar production from the 2025/26 season to February 15 decreased by 4.83% year - on - year. [24] - Pulp Market: The Chinese pulp market continues to weaken. The price of imported NBSK has declined, and the inventory in major ports has increased. [27] - Double - offset Paper Market: The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% week - on - week, and the decline rate narrowed. The operating load rate was 57.43%, with a slight increase. [28] - Cotton Market: As of February 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.5037 million tons, a decrease of 285,000 tons from the end of January, a decrease of 4.92%, and 177,400 tons lower than the same period last year, a decrease of 3.12%. The industrial inventory of textile enterprises was 1.0292 million tons, an increase of 75,600 tons year - on - year and 28,200 tons month - on - month. [29] 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review - Apple 2605: The closing price was 9749, with a daily increase of 44 and a daily increase rate of 0.45%. [30] - Jujube 2605: The closing price was 8910, with a daily increase of 65 and a daily increase rate of 0.73%. [30] - Sugar 2605: The closing price was 5248, with a daily increase of 19 and a daily increase rate of 0.36%. [30] - Pulp 2605: The closing price was 5348, with a daily increase of 8 and a daily increase rate of 0.15%. [30] - Cotton 2605: The closing price was 15380, with a daily increase of 95 and a daily increase rate of 0.62%. [30] - Spot Market Review - Apple: The spot price was 4.45 yuan per catty, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan. [37] - Jujube: The spot price was 9.40 yuan per kilogram, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan. [37] - Sugar: The spot price was 5330 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 750 yuan. [37] - Pulp: The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was 5350 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 1290 yuan. [37] - Double - offset Paper: The spot price of Taiyang Tianyang double - offset paper in Tianjin was 4350 yuan, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 700 yuan. [37] - Cotton: The spot price was 16329 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 259 yuan and a year - on - year increase of 1348 yuan. [37] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only relevant figures are provided, including the basis of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton. [51][52][54][56] 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 Spread: The current value is 1293, with a month - on - month increase of 13 and a year - on - year increase of 1888. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the recommended strategy is to buy on dips. [57] - Jujube 5 - 9 Spread: The current value is - 235, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 and a year - on - year increase of 180. It is recommended to wait and see. [57] - Sugar 5 - 9 Spread: The current value is - 19, with a month - on - month decrease of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 140. It is expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see. [57] - Cotton 5 - 9 Spread: The current value is 95, with a month - on - month increase of 40 and a year - on - year increase of 240. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies. [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no specific text description, only relevant figures are provided, including the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, and net long and short positions of apple, jujube, sugar, pulp, and cotton. [64][66][68] 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, with no month - on - month and year - on - year changes. [89] - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 3869, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 828. [89] - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 14461, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 9501. [89] - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 155621, with no month - on - month change and a year - on - year decrease of 198281. [89] - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts is 11124, a month - on - month increase of 111 and a year - on - year increase of 4031. [89] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Apple Options: There are figures on trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. [93][94] - Sugar Options: There are figures on trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. [98][100] - Cotton Options: There are figures on trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility. [104][105]