有色金属月度策略-20260226

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of non - ferrous metals is oscillating and strengthening. However, concerns about AI's impact on employment and the resurgence of tariff war risks have dampened the optimistic expectations brought by the recovery of European and American economic data during the holiday. The market sentiment may shift from a general rise to a phase of cooling and differentiation. Attention should be paid to the fundamental support factors of each variety, and varieties with geopolitical supply disturbances are relatively strong [11]. - The post - holiday non - ferrous sector mostly rebounded, but the trends were differentiated. Geopolitical uncertainties, fluctuations in interest rate cut expectations, and the reflection on the impact of AI on the economy and employment may still cause fluctuations in relevant chains. There is a supply - demand mismatch after the holiday, with inventory accumulation and incomplete demand recovery [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: Non - ferrous metals are generally oscillating and strengthening. AI and tariff war risks have affected market sentiment, and the market may shift from a general rise to differentiation. Pay attention to the fundamentals of each variety, and those with geopolitical supply disturbances are relatively strong [11]. - Key Events: Zimbabwe has suspended the export of all raw ores and lithium concentrates. The US has tariff changes, including the suspension of illegal tariffs, potential new tariff increases, and responses from various parties. There are also fluctuations in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and the impact of AI. Geopolitical uncertainties are strong, such as the potential US military strike on Iran. China's LPR has remained unchanged for nine consecutive months [12][13]. - Investment Strategies for Each Variety - Copper: Concerns about US tariff hikes and economic slowdown have led to a return of risk - aversion sentiment. The gold and silver markets have broken through and risen, and copper prices have followed. However, the domestic demand is in a seasonal off - season, and the fundamentals are weak, limiting the upside. It is recommended to gradually buy on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying deep - out - of - the - money long - term call options [3][15]. - Zinc: The market treats the US tariff situation as positive. The external market is stronger, and the domestic market is differentiated. The inventory in LME has decreased. It is recommended to consider the rotation of bull spreads and bear spreads, with an upper pressure range of 24,800 - 25,000 and a lower support range of 23,800 - 24,000 [4][16]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum: Driven by leading non - ferrous metals, the price is strong. With the US steel and aluminum tariffs undecided, it is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000, and the lower support range is 22,000 - 23,000. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - Alumina: The spot price has temporarily stabilized, and there are many restarts after capacity maintenance. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bearish approach. The upper pressure range is 2,900 - 3,000, and the lower support range is 2,300 - 2,600. Buy out - of - the - money call options for protection [5]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: Enterprises have a long holiday, and downstream demand recovery is restricted by aluminum prices and raw material supply. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach. The upper pressure range is 23,000 - 24,000, and the lower support range is 21,000 - 21,500. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [5]. - Tin: News about the US strengthening the pricing power of key small metal minerals has fermented, driving up the price of Shanghai tin. It is recommended to wait and see or take a bullish approach, paying attention to capital sentiment, mine conditions, and macro - impacts. The upper pressure range is 430,000 - 450,000, and the lower support range is 330,000 - 350,000. Buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - Lead: The overseas market is optimistic about the US tariff situation. The price is in consolidation. After the Spring Festival, inventory has accumulated, and there is still upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate, with an upper pressure range of 16,800 - 17,000 and a lower support range of 16,200 - 16,400. Operate according to the upper and lower limits, and it may be slightly bearish in the short - term [7]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The overseas market is optimistic about the US tariff changes. The US - Indonesia trade agreement and quota cuts are expected to keep the cost of nickel products at a high level. LME nickel inventory is above 280,000 tons, and supply contraction expectations continue. It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips, with an upper pressure range of 140,000 - 145,000 yuan and a lower support range of 130,000 - 134,000 yuan [8][17]. - Stainless Steel: The price has rebounded. The quota tightening in Indonesia may increase the cost. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a lower support range of 13,000 - 13,400 and an upper pressure range of 14,200 - 14,500 [8][17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, copper closed at 102,460 with a 0.94% increase, zinc at 24,645 with a 0.08% increase, etc. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector shows the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety [22]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 102,130 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 24,540 yuan/ton with a - 0.41% change [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Various charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, price trends, etc. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes, LME copper inventory, copper concentrate smelting fees, etc. [25] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the spread between Shanghai copper and London copper, etc. [50] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, and position changes of options for each variety [68]