有色商品日报-20260226

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward trend, and the domestic refined copper spot import window closed. Macro factors include Trump's statements in his State - of - the - Union address and the US trade representative's tariff plans. LME copper inventory increased by 6475 tons to 249650 tons, Comex copper inventory decreased by 479 tons to 545257 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 10717 tons to 287806 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts decreased by 700 tons to 14218 tons. The post - holiday copper price increase was affected by the rise of precious metals and export disruptions in Zimbabwe. There is a risk of a secondary correction due to the ebb of macro - sentiment and inventory accumulation. However, the core logic driving copper prices upward remains unchanged, and a large correction in copper prices would be a good opportunity to lay out long - term long positions [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with an upward trend. The SMM alumina price stopped falling and rebounded. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened, and the processing fees of some aluminum products changed. Overseas alumina price increases and domestic electrolytic aluminum plants' winter raw material storage led to the upward movement of the alumina futures market. However, social inventory backlog and expiring warehouse receipt cancellation pressure suppressed the upward trend. After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum had short - term upward potential but limited overall space, and the inventory accumulation level of aluminum ingots would determine the subsequent upward starting position [1][3]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.73% to 18045 US dollars per ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.11% to 141680 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 480 tons to 287808 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1253 tons to 53177 tons. There are concerns about tight resource supply in Indonesia due to factors such as production quota shrinkage, factory production cuts, and potential environmental permit cancellations. Although the phased demand has weakened, the cost support is still strong. There are opportunities to go long with a light position near the cost line, and a significant reduction in visible inventory may further boost prices [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - water copper increased by 590 yuan/ton to 101995 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 420 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong increased by 300 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 243175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10717 tons to 287806 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 1024 tons, and the social inventory (domestic + bonded area) decreased by 0.5 million tons to 40.1 million tons [6]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead remained at 16660 yuan/ton, and the price of some lead products changed slightly. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 286325 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 946 tons to 59323 tons [6]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes changed slightly, and the spot premium decreased by 40 yuan/ton. The price of some aluminum raw materials and downstream products changed. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 471550 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2576 tons to 285175 tons, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 21.6 million tons to 110.8 million tons, and the social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.4 million tons to 15.5 million tons [7]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 2350 yuan/ton to 149200 yuan/ton, and the price of some nickel - related products changed. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory remained unchanged at 287328 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 1253 tons to 53177 tons, and the social inventory of nickel increased by 1277 tons to 74502 tons [7]. Zinc - Market prices: The main settlement price decreased by 0.3% to 24585 yuan/ton, and the prices of some zinc products decreased. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6268 tons, LME inventory remained unchanged at 101250 tons, and the social inventory increased by 3.62 million tons to 17.43 million tons [9]. Tin - Market prices: The main settlement price increased by 3.7% to 400860 yuan/ton, and the prices of some tin products changed. - Inventory: SHFE weekly inventory increased by 2264 tons to 11014 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 7655 tons [9]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report mainly presents various charts related to non - ferrous metals, including spot premiums and discounts, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits, covering copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals [10][16][22][30][34][41]. 4. Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience and many honors; Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon; and Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both of whom have won relevant awards and have rich research and service experience [48][49].