高频数据跟踪:春节出游人次及花费创新高
China Post Securities·2026-02-26 03:05
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - frequency economic data focuses on four aspects: production seasonally cools down; the Spring Festival movie box - office drops nearly 40% year - on - year while tourist trips and spending hit new highs due to an extra holiday day; overall prices decline with oil, coking coal, and rebar prices falling, non - ferrous prices rising slightly, and agricultural products entering a seasonal downward trend; affected by the Spring Festival, subway ridership and peak congestion index in first - tier cities are low, while flight volume is high. Short - term attention should be paid to the progress of front - loaded fiscal efforts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production: Seasonal Obvious Cooling - Steel: In the week of February 20, the coke oven capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.11 pct, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.6 pct, and the rebar output increased by 1.22 tons. The inventory of rebar increased by 57.48 tons [9]. - Petroleum Asphalt: In the week of February 11, the operating rate of domestic petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.8 pct at a low level [9]. - Chemicals: On February 24, the PX operating rate remained flat compared with the previous week, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 3.86 pct [9]. - Automobile Tires: In the week of February 19, the full - steel tire operating rate decreased by 28.2 pct, and the semi - steel tire operating rate decreased by 45.2 pct [10]. Demand: Spring Festival Tourism and Consumption Hit New Highs, Movie Box - Office Drops Significantly Year - on - Year - Real Estate: In the week of February 22, the commercial housing transaction area decreased, the inventory - to - sales ratio increased significantly, the land supply area dropped sharply, and the residential land transaction premium rate decreased [13]. - Movie Box - Office: In 2026, the Spring Festival movie box - office was 5.752 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 39.5%; the number of moviegoers was 120 million, a year - on - year decrease of 35.8% [13]. - Tourism Consumption: Due to an extra day of the Spring Festival holiday, the number of tourist trips and spending both hit new highs. During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, there were 596 million domestic tourist trips and the total domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan [14]. - Automobile Sales: In the week of February 8, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 9,218 units, and the average daily wholesale sales decreased by 15,720 units [18]. - Shipping Freight Rates: In the week of February 13, the SCFI index decreased by 1.19%, and the CCFI index decreased by 3.03%. On February 24, the BDI index increased by 1.62% compared with the previous week [20]. Prices: Non - ferrous Prices Rise, Agricultural Products Enter a Seasonal Downward Trend - Energy: On February 24, the Brent crude oil price decreased by 1.38% to $70.77 per barrel [22]. - Coking Coal: On February 24, the coking coal futures price decreased by 1.74% to 1,100.5 yuan per ton [22]. - Metals: On February 24, the LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices increased by 1.78%, 0.26%, and 0.15% respectively, while the domestic rebar futures price decreased by 0.98% [23]. - Agricultural Products: On February 24, the overall agricultural product price declined, with the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index decreasing by 0.81%. The prices of pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits changed by - 0.17%, - 2.46%, - 2.33%, and + 1.50% respectively compared with before the festival [25]. Logistics: Flight Volume is High, Spring Festival Personnel Flow Hits a New High - Subway Ridership: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of subway ridership in Beijing decreased by 125.34 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 18.32%; in Shanghai, it decreased by 171.29 million person - times, a week - on - week decrease of 23.57% [26]. - Personnel Flow: During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, the cross - regional personnel flow in the whole society reached 2.81 billion person - times, a new high. The daily average was 310 million person - times, an 8.2% increase compared with the same period last year [29]. - Flight Volume: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of domestic (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) flight volume increased by 3.37%, that of domestic (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) increased by 1.08%, and that of international flights increased by 0.35% [29]. - Urban Traffic: On February 24, the seven - day moving average of the peak congestion index in first - tier cities decreased by 5.79% compared with the previous week [29].
高频数据跟踪:春节出游人次及花费创新高 - Reportify